The Ponder Point

More crock elections

anyone who's looked over their SGA presidential ballot has realized how incredibly stupid the process has become. by removing Snow at the last moment, this has gone from an election to an exercise in futility. this isn't how South Dakota operates, this is how, Russia, Venezuela, and Michigan operate, having only a single candidate on the ballot, then declaring him (or her) the "winner." once this election is over, we need to immediately start a new election, either that, or impeach the new "president" and immediately start a new election. either way this system is incredibly moronic and in need of a rapid overhaul.

Posted at 11:34PM Mar 05, 2008 by Taylor Garvey Poro in General  |  Comments[2]

delegate math: playing cribbage, not poker.

There has been a lot of talk about why Hillary Clinton is losing in the delegate race, and just what exactly this means for her campaign. The simple fact is, she didn’t realize what kind of campaign she was running, or more to the point, what type of game she was playing. Hillary assumed, wrongly it seems, that a presidential campaign was going to be like a game of poker, instead it seems, it’s more like a game of cribbage. If you don’t know what poker is, go here, for cribbage go here. To be fair to Hillary, most campaigns have been like somewhat like a game of poker. All the candidates come in to the table, raise and bluff for months on a single hand (Iowa) then all but two or three players are left at the table. From there, the front runner raises a lot, bluffs a little, and destroys his opponents in a couple of hands. He may lose one or two hands, but he’ll win enough to quickly get the nomination. It was like this on the republican side this year and that’s why McCain won the nomination so quickly. In Iowa, Romney put down a large chunk of his money and political capital, then lost all of it to Huckabee, whereas no one else invested much in that game and survived in tact. Then in new Hampshire, McCain won the hand, gaining a large chunk of political capital (and money) at the expense of Romney and to a lesser extent Huckabee. From there, while McCain lost a hand or two, (Michigan, Maine, Nevada) the respective pots for those states were so little that it didn’t matter. He won all of the chips in south Carolina, Florida, and then won enough hands in super Tuesday thanks to the winner take all rules to secure the nomination. This is the strategy Hillary had been using, win new Hampshire, possibly Iowa, then win enough hands on Super Tuesday to secure the nomination. Unfortunately for her, as she played her cards, she quickly realized that due to the rules of the democrats, she was playing cribbage, not poker. Cribbage is quite similar to poker in the sense that pairs, and runs are relevant, but unlike poker, it is not winner take all, even if you lose a hand, your not at that much of a disadvantage unless you lose big. In cribbage, each player gets plays two rounds, a round of pegging, and a round of counting cards. The pegging is where players put down their cards, and try to earn points by getting runs, pairs and fifteens. Each round in pegging goes up until the cards add up to 31, or get close to 31 where no player can put down a card without going over 31. This is done until both players use up their cards. This is quite similar to the democratic system of super delegates, points racked up outside of primaries or caucuses, depending on luck, strategy and cards. The second round, after pegging is where you count out fifteens, pairs, runs, flushes, and knobs to get points. In this case, points are the same as delegates, and this round is equivalent to the primaries and caucuses. Just as both Obama and Clinton are running to get 2,025 delegates, in cribbage you play until one player gets 121 points. Unlike poker, and many of the republican races, neither the democratic primaries/caucuses, nor the rounds in cribbage are winner take all. Both players, depending on how they play their hands can come out with similar delegate amounts, regardless of who has the better hand. The 20+ primaries and caucuses throughout Super Tuesday were equivalent to 20+ hands of cribbage. Hillary won big states, getting a lot of delegates, just as you can get a 20, or 24 point hand in cribbage (the largest hand is 29 points) unfortunately for her, due to proportional rules, and close margins, while she won with a 20 point hand in new jersey for example, Obama had a 16 point, a very small net gain. Despite the large number of delegates in new jersey, she only gained a net of about 12. This was true all over the country as she gained few delegates in big states winning with 20, 24 point hands against Obama’s 16, 18 point hands. In the caucuses meanwhile, there weren’t many points available, but she lost by such margins that it didn’t matter, Obama won in the net. Minnesota for example was like Obama winning with a 10 point hand to Clinton only having one pair (two points). Sure there weren’t that many delegates up for grabs, but he received such a large net gain of delegates that it was enough to keep him in this. Now, with super Tuesday, the cross country, and the Potomac primaries over, Obama has a slight delegate lead, and pledged delegate lead of about 7%. In cribbage you can still catch up if you fall behind, but it requires one player to get one or two VERY good hands, while the opponent gets no better than a mediocre hand.

Posted at 11:50AM Mar 05, 2008 by Taylor Garvey Poro in General  |  Comments[1]

odd, people are actually reading this.

not trying to be mean, but you must be even more bored than I am ;). As a last post of the night, I thought I’d do something different because I may actually try to keep this site going. I'm going to list a few random musings on not much in particular, a bit of fluff I suppose, but hey, people read blogs for less. First off, I’ve got to say I love potatoes, they make excellent snacks, lots of food, with few calories, just throw them in the microwave and hope it doesn't blow up. I haven’t had time to read any new non-school related books lately, but of course Stephen king's new book looks good, I just need to find a way to get the book. I’m not paying 26 dollars for a book. I won't pay more than 5 dollars for a piece of clothing, so I’m not paying 26 bucks for a book! for anyone who enjoys manga, or graphic novels I must suggest reading "DeathNote" a rather dark Japanese graphic novel about an anti-hero with a god complex able to kill anyone simply by writing their name in a special note book, or "DeathNote." unlike most of the childish mangas, this one, rather than having a clear hero, has an anti-hero in Light Yagami. He's a self righteous teenager who uses the death note to kill criminals, becoming judge jury and executioner. on the TV front, there's a new episode of lost this Thursday, and I think I’ll live blog it, though if anyone cares that's sad. just some random thoughts before bed, night.

Posted at 12:10AM Mar 05, 2008 by Taylor Garvey Poro in General  |  Comments[0]

what happened???

looking over the returns, I can't figure out what the heck happened. now, Clinton’s lead will shrink in Ohio when Chattanooga county comes in later tonight, but still, unless he REALLY runs up the numbers there, it's going to be a good night in Ohio for Clinton. Texas could go either way, but she’s been gaining all night, so unless all of her counties have come in, it doesn’t look good for him. However, looking over the counties, it looks like a lot of the Clinton ones have already come in, so she might be running out of votes. What this means is, it’s going to be a long night. The question is where the race goes from here. Pennsylvania is the obvious route, and Hillary will have some momentum after this, but after Wyoming and Mississippi vote in the next week, she’s going to have to maintain her momentum for the next 6 weeks until April 22. That is going to be hard to do considering how hard it is to get the delegates to win the nomination. Either way, this is going to last a long time.

Posted at 11:20PM Mar 04, 2008 by Taylor Garvey Poro in General  |  Comments[0]

well, little seems to be happening

Ohio is slogging on, it looks bad for Obama, but most of the votes that have come in, are in Hillary country. Should he win big where he needs to, it should close. Texas meanwhile, is tightening, but still looking good for Obama. If he can’t win both, it would be good for him to win one of each, but by better margins. Rhode island meanwhile has been called for Hillary. The margins in Vermont will most likely be better than those in Rhode Island, but Rhode Island has more delegates so it will probably be a wash. Meanwhile, there’s talk that tomorrow Obama will announce huge fundraising numbers, and a swath of super delegates switching to him. Should that happen, it will be demoralizing for Hillary, which is probably the point, to make her question if the next six weeks before Pennsylvania will be worth it. All the while I’m working on math homework. I hate math, and from what I can tell, so does Mike Huckabee.

Posted at 08:46PM Mar 04, 2008 by Taylor Garvey Poro in General  |  Comments[1]

mccain the nominee according to cnn

at least it's not 9/11 man, huckleberry, Mitt R-Money, or fred (oh my god, he's in a com... no, it's just a nap) thompson.

Posted at 08:01PM Mar 04, 2008 by Taylor Garvey Poro in General  |  Comments[1]

ohio and texas

the Texas primary numbers should start coming in around 8:00 cst, though some of the votes have already come in. so far, Obama leads Hillary 511,000 to 412,000 votes, and the lead has been narrowing. these are most likely early votes, and votes from regions of the state whose polls have already closed. in Ohio meanwhile, only a few counties have started coming in, with Hillary leading 60-38 with only 15,000 votes counted. with the exit poll data, it looks like a Hillary win at 51-49, but this could easily change with exit poll errors, and Sandusky county which is still voting because of bad weather. Rhode Island will probably be Hillary, but Obama could pull off a surprise.

Posted at 08:00PM Mar 04, 2008 by Taylor Garvey Poro in General  |  Comments[0]

obama mccain win vermont!!!

Huckabee, while hilarious, never stood a chance in Vermont. His God, Jesus, and the taxman sentiment does not fly well in the birthplace of civil unions, Ben and jerry’s ice cream, and the state with the only socialist in the senate. (US Senator Bernie Sanders). Huckabee will be lucky to break 33% of the vote.

Posted at 06:04PM Mar 04, 2008 by Taylor Garvey Poro in General  |  Comments[0]

polls close soon

The votes in my home state of Vermont will close in a few minutes, and it will be a good win for Obama. Vermont is a state of outsiders and not to fond of insider politicians. Jerry brown, John McCain, almost bill Bradley, from both parties we like the outsiders. While the win won’t amount to much in terms of delegates, it will mean one thing, Obama will have won the WHITEST STATE IN THE COUNTRY (tied with Maine). If there’s any linger thoughts that he’s “the black candidate” they will be thrown out the door. It is also a primary, so the argument that he won because of party activists can’t be made either. This will be a good symbolic victory for him, and it’s nice that our state actually counts. I sent in my absentee ballot a few weeks ago, it was the first time I ever voted in a presidential race, and it felt great.

Posted at 05:51PM Mar 04, 2008 by Taylor Garvey Poro in General  |  Comments[0]

hi ya.

Hi, if you're reading this, you've probably gotten lost somewhere on the USD website and are wondering where you are, who I am, and why you should be reading this. Well noisy, let's start with your first intrusion shall we? This blog is an expansion of my biweekly editorial in the Volante. The print medium is too small to adequately express one's views and important information is unfortunately omitted. This blog is the answer to that. I will post every editorial from the Volante, along with all of the extra information I was unable to include due to the aforementioned limitations of the medium. Of course with a blog, the space suddenly goes from limited to limitless and a biweekly blog isn't enough. More space must be filled to satisfy the ever hungry masses (by now you must have realized I’m a bit delusional). The Pondering Point will be a place to discussion ground for a plethora of ideas political nonpolitical and some that are just stupid or crazy (flash, there's only Olson twin, the other's a highly specialized android, discuss!). Well, that's about it, though don't expect regular postings, I do have a life (well, not really, but I do have homework) feel free to comment and expand the discourse. Peace out ya'll!

Posted at 09:28PM Sep 27, 2007 by Taylor Garvey Poro in General  |  Comments[3]