This small soapbox rant is in no way an attack on the majority. Its sole purpose is to portray the situation as it exists in our state.

A lot of people like to talk about diversity. They like to assume that because they are intelligent; they can adequately account for the experiences and needs of those unlike them. I am here to say that these people are dellusional. When we celebrate diversity, we do not just celebrate the existance of those unlike us, we celebrate their contributions to our world. We celebrate their unique life stories and, in some cases, their unique struggle just to reach a college campus.

We all like to think that we know what goes on in the house of others, but we do not and often cannot. We might have a loose idea of the alcoholism or the dropout rates on Native American reservations, for example, but unless we live it, our claims of solidarity ring hollow. We can analyze and study as much as we want about the experiences of others, but unless we feel the tribulations of those who are different first-hand, we will only have a peripheral knowledge.

Through experience comes understanding, and it is this experience and understanding forged by the trials of everyday life that is at the center of diversity. When we celebrate diversity, we celebrate a people's history, their heritage, their customs and people themselves. We celebrate and share until we can no longer parition our heritage by ethnic or socioeconomic lines. This is the only way that we give true justice to the history of our university, our state, and our nation.

Tonight, I lobbied for a Resolution to the Student Government Association calling for the replacement of the current USD Alma Mater with one more reflective of this institution's history and the collective history of its students, faculty and staff. It was neutered by the Internal Affairs Committee. What occured today was a disgrace; and for anyone to claim the resolution that passed the SGA was a call for diversity would be a disservice to both the term and the ideas reflected by it. What passed today was an attempt to limp along with a campus-wide initiative to increase the diversity. At best, it was an attempt to say much, but ultimately do nothing. So for every Senator who voted for the resolution and SGA president Ryan Budmayr, I will simply say that I believe the resolution passed by your organisation was akin to all of you enthusiastically waving the vestial remenants of your personal conviction and multiculturalism and hoping beyond hope that it is enough of an effort to excuse you for your ignorance. It is not.

I do not pretend that I have either ability or merit to lecture you about the experiences of those different than myself, but I will say that I try my hardest to allow for the expression and exchange of all our personal and ethnic histories. I believe that this exchange leads to the discourse that begets change. And from where I stand, that effort is either beyond your convictions or beyond your capabilities.

Xiao Xi Zhang

After a spirited contest which saw the Democrats pick up seats in the House, Senate and the White House (and after the corresponding 1 month break for recovery), it's finally time for this blog to get back to doing what it does best - arduously long pieces designed to inform.

This, I think, is as good of a time as any to begin blogging again as the last few elections finally passed. Unfortunately, Jim Martin lost his runoff for the Georgia Senate on Dec. 2nd, but the good people Louisiana chose to kick out a bad poltician (William Jefferson of LA-2) and who I am confident will elect a good one in my home Parrish of Caddo.

So, in celebration of a generally swell time for the Democrats, I have chosen to examine several of the problem areas in the world that President Obama will be called to deal with. The first and foremost of these is the escalating situation in the Asian subcontient, a situation that involves multiple nuclear powers and multiple members of the growing global south. Not only does Pakistan and India have a long-held historical and ethnic rivalry, but the tendrils of this conflict has spread in such a way that a hot war could possibly include other nations like China, Iran, and possibly the United States.

Historically, the two nations (Pakistan and India) have always been on opposite sides. Well known by many, upon the liberation of India from the British, the Muslims contained within India chose to establish their own separate nation (now two nations) rather than govern as an united India. During the 1960s-1980s, Pakistan was allied closely with the United States and the Chinese, while India chose to remain largely neutral, though there are implications of Soviet activity in their government. As the Cold War came to an end, the two nations began to antagonize over numerous issues - most well known among them being the situation in Kashmir.

Furthermore, the political situations in both countries were never particularly strong. Pakistan has had a long history of military governance as the military has been the key recipient of foreign aid since the country's inception. India, while a stable democracy, suffers from its large population which tends to make voting and clean elections difficutl. Currently, the government of Pakistan is embroiled in perhaps the worst, most de-centralized government of any nuclearly-armed nation in the world. The current political atmosphere contains as many as 6 governing powers - among them the PPP (represented by current President Ali Asif Zardari), the military, the tribal area, the legal community, and the political opposition. The situation in India is better, but not enough where a war cannot result. The current Prime Minister - Manmohan Singh - is rather unpopular given the increasing resource crunch and India's recent string of well known economic defeats to coutnries like Japan and China. Furthermore, despite the quality of their instructors, the quality of primary education in India is extremely poor, with some studies citing that less than 1% of the GDP goes towards primary education. This results in a population that almost uniquely defines the term "huddled masses" as these individuals lack both adequate education and access to jobs - creating a permenant 3rd estate that is prone for emotional reactions.

The result of this hodgepodge of problems is that the two countries often find themselves driven towards each other's throats often by historical and political considerations. This frequently leads to episodes of mutual distrust and the existance of a permenant cold war. All powder kegs like the current situation needs is a fuse, one ably provided by the terrorist attacks in Mumbai over Thanksgiving weekend.

The situation of terrorism in both states is...disturbing and convoluted. Neither side is able to solve the problem on its own, but the presence of constant hatred between the two peoples have made cooperation all but impossible. To make matters worse China and Iran have numerous historical ties to the area. China, a long-time enemy of India and a competitor for the mantle of the new Asian power, has long supplied Pakistan with both military weaponary and nuclear capabilities. Iran, meanwhile, often uses the situation in Pakistan as a rallying point for its most conservative base. And while Iran is the only nation willing to commit troops to a greater war, the presence of so many diverse interests in the area (and the presence of the faltering state of Afghanistan) makes the situation difficult to diffuse and potentially disastrous given the right mix of circumstances. Make no qualms, this situation is explosive and given both sides have sufficient nuclear weapons for the other's total destruction, the situation must be diffused before desparate regimes (India) and decentralized power (Pakistan) leads to a war that would be greatly regreted in the future.

Diffusing the situation will be difficult, but the best thing the current president-elect can do is explore the expertise of his Vice-President, a man who has long been supportive of the concept of civilian governance in Pakistan. While it might not solve the explosive situation, providing more money to Pakistan's civilian government will certainly mitigate the most hardline portions of the Pakistani ruling mob (the military and intelligence establishments). Passing the Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act (introduced by Vice President-elect Joe Biden and Republican Senator Richard Lugar) will go a long way in restoring a modicum of stability in Pakistan. The current strategy of mutual build up (a strategy perpetrated by providing the Pakistani military with significant aid while at the same time building up India's nuclear and economic ability) will only lead to disaster. The solving of this problem will require a heavy investment of political capital and time by the American president, but it is a situation that can still be avoided with

Interestingly, the 111th Congress has yet to even begin and members of the GOP that are thought to be vulnerable are already reaching across party lines in hopes of solidfying their support in 2010. A good example of this is Ohio Senator George Voinovich who have seen his State elect a Democratic governor, a Democratic Senator and a Democratic President in 3 straight elections.

With the national weakness of the Republican brand, it will be interesting to keep track of the voting records of the most vulnerable of the GOP Senators and Representatives. Will seemingly targetted Senators (like Murkowski in Alaska or Bunnings in Kentucky) be more willing to appear bipartisan? Will that be enough to save them? Currently, the beauty of a weak and infighting GOP is that they cannot afford to mount a strong opposition. Even if the Dems fail to get 60 (and I think there's a good chance that they do), the weakness of the GOP will probably mean at least 2 years of uninterrupted rule.

First, for the good news -

As you know, Ben Nesselhuf easily defeated Jerad Higman in his re-election campaign, proving that District 17 is one of the finest and most progressive districts in all of South Dakota. Aside from that, we also picked up 4 house seats overall in the state legislature. I believe this gives us a total of 4.

Unfortunately, it's not all pies and roses as the South Dakota Democrats, during an election cycle where the Republican brand was seemingly damaged everywhere, managed to lose a Senate seat in the state legislature. This seems almost incomprehensible. Yes, I understand that the presence of an abortion initiative (yet again) probably drove more conservatives in the polls, and I understand that the State Dems trail the Republicans in both fundraising and tradition, but that cannot be the sole reason for the continued inability of SD Democrats to mount a significant opposition.

There must be a re-evaluation of how things are done here, because it seems to me that our fund allocation was both poor and short-sighted during the course of thsi election. South Dakota is becoming purple on a national level, there's no reason for the Democrats to fail so consistently and so massively on the State level anymore.

Even before building Hyperion is already trying to get around environmental regulations. 

Congratulations to the Democratic party for one of the biggest and most well-organized political campaigns in memory.

That said, here are some things that have become obvious:

1) There was no wave

As far as down ticket races go, few Democrats drastically outperformed their expectations. Neither Bruce Lunsford in Kentucky or Ronnie Musgrove in Mississippi was able to mount much of a serious challenge against Republican incumbents. Even in Georgia, where Jim Martin has forced a runoff against Saxby Chambliss, the final vote % were what they were in pre-election polls. There was no large wave of new voters in those states that carried these Southern Dems to victory. In fact, the seats lost by the Democrats in the house were in states like Texas and Louisiana. The sudden surge of new voters made a huge impact on the presidential race, but not that much of an impact on close down-ticket races.

2) Alaska is the craziest state in the Union

Move over Wyoming and Montana. Alaska did the impossible and seemingly re-elected a convicted felon to the Senate and someone who will soon be a convicted Felon to the house.

3) This changes racial relations, but it does not solve them

Look at the turn out for McCain, Obama actually lost more votes in the South and Appalachia than Kerry did. This single election does not change how our world works, it merely means that we're on the right path for change.

4) A Rundown of the races Taylor and I highlighted

Indiana 9th - Baron P. Hill (D-Incumbent) defeats Mike Sodrel by 20%, setting pace for a Democratic overall victory.

Georgia Senate - Saxby Chambliss (R-Incumbent) and Jim Martin (D) - Not decided yet. Run off will be 4 weeks from now.

North Carolina Senate - Kay Hagan (D) defeats Elizabeth Dole (R-Incumbent) - Dole was gracious in defeat.

Missouri Governor - Jay Nixon (D) defeats Kenny Hulshof by 18%

Minnesota Senate - Norm Coleman (R-Incumbent) and Al Franken (D) are in recount. Coleman leads Franken by 500 votes.

Idaho 1st - Walt Minnick (D) defeats Bill Sali (R-Incumbent) by 4%.

Washington Governor - Christine Gregoire (D-Incumbent) defeats Dino Rossi (GOP)

Alaska House - Don Young (R-Incumbent) defeats Ethan Berkowtiz (D) - A shame

9:00 PM Central Time

7:30 PM Central Time

Minnesota (Kerry by 3%) – Obama +10.1

The land of 10,000 lakes, Minnesota has been one of the most storied states of this election. Not only did it host the Republican National Convention, which was cut short because of Hurricane Gustav, but it also featured three of the toughest races this election cycle.

In recent years, Minnesota has gone from a tossup state to a state that is reliably Democrat, even if the elections are a bit close at times. This makes sense considering all the demographics of the state. Minnesota is home to one of the most well-educated and active (78% turnout rate) electorates in the country. The Democratic Party (known as the DFL) is also extremely well-organized, and the party always have a deep bench of Democratic candidates to choose from for every election. The presidential race has been all but decided here, but the interesting scenario is developing in the Congressional races.

Minnesota feature two districts in which Republican incumbents are fighting for their political lives. The heavily conservative 6^th District is the site of an unexpectedly close race between Freshman Congresswoman Michelle Bachman and her DFL opponent Elwyn Tinklenberg after Bachman channeled her inner Joe McCarthy on national TV. The Republicans have pulled party funding from this race, so Tinklenberg might very well have lucked his way into the US House.

The other toss up district features a set two very good candidates against each other in an effort to replace retiring moderate Republican Jim Ramstad. The fight is between polished Republican state Representative Erik Paulsen against 30 year old lawyer and Iraq war veteran Ashwin Madia. If either of these candidates win, they can heavily boost their stock in their respective parties. This race is worth watching for future political implications.

Of course, there’s a Senate race too, that will be addressed in detail later.

Wisconsin (Kerry by 1%) – Obama +11.5

A more moderate version of Minnesota, Wisconsin narrowly went for Kerry (by less than .5%) in 04 and went narrowly for Gore in 2000. This year, though, there will be nothing narrow about Barack Obama’s victory here. Wisconsin has become progressively more Democrat as the labor unions grow here and as unemployment rises. Expect this one to be called early.

And because we’re obligated by contract – Russ Feingold

Western South Dakota

Louisiana(Bush by 15%) – McCain +9.9

One of the most corrupt political systems in the Union, Louisiana was thought to be the first of the Gulf States that might swing Democratic as Northern Louisiana’s minority population continues to grow in conjunction with the progressive expansion of Democratic South Louisiana – leaving only the heavily Republican districts between Baton Rouge and Monroe as an obstacle to Democratic rule.

Unfortunately, the federal government failed the people of Louisiana and the voter base in New Orleans was forever shattered by Katrina. It will take awhile for Louisiana to recover its former purple tone, but there are factors that suggest it could still turn blue in the future. Mainly, Louisiana is a very young state and still have a significant minority population that is still growing, especially in conservative North Louisiana. Still, for the purposes of this race, nothing to see here folks. McCain will win, probably by double digits.

Still, despite the changing of its electorate, Louisiana will still retain its heavily Incumbent-favoring election system. Senator Mary Landrieu (D) will retain her seat easily, as will most of Louisiana’s representatives. The lone exceptions are Dan Cazayoux (D-Incumbent) in the heavily conservative Baton Rouge region (LA-6), who won a special election by the skin of his teeth and will have to fight off another strong challenge from Republican Bill Cassidy and Independent Michael Jackson. Jackson will have an impact on this race as he is the only African-American candidate in a district that is 33% African-American.

The Democrats might pick up another house seat in the moderate 4^th District located in Shreveport (North Louisiana), but that election won’t be held until December 9^th.

Arizona (Bush by 11%) – McCain +4.9

There is, however some drama building in Arizona. This would seem unlikely due to it being McCain’s home state, but he is the maverick, and nothing is more maverick than losing your own state.

There are two house seats, one, a republican seat that leans Dem, and the other a Republican seat that’s a tossup. Normally, as this is the Republican nominee’s home state, his good performance would bring them across the finish line, but unfortunately for them, Kohn McCain isn’t doing very well in his home state.  Recent polls have shown him within the margin of error against Obama, whereas Obama is winning his home state by large margins and will have large coattails for Democrats in Illinois.

If Arizona was a Democratic state (like Tennessee in 2000), McCain’s fight here would be understandable but Arizona has a long legacy of Republican strength. While not a strong Republican state, it is lean Republican, to likely Republican and Bush carried the state by double digits in 2004. Yet McCain hasn’t done so well there. While he’s always won election fairly easily for senate, as shown in February, Arizonians don’t like the idea of McCain for president. 

While every other nominee won their home state with a minimum of high 50% of the vote, McCain failed to get a majority of votes in the primary. He won the Arizona primary with 49% of the vote. At this point, it is a very realistic possibility that should he run for Senate re-election in 2010, McCain would not win against popular Democratic governor Janet Napolitano.

The seat in the 1^st district will likely go Republican, and in the 3^rd district, if McCain can get at least 55% of the vote statewide, incumbent Republican John Shadegg will probably win. Otherwise Democrat Bob Lord could very well win.

New Mexico (Bush by 1%) – Obama +9.7

A state that is trending heavily Democratic, New Mexico is a state that might elect a complete ticket of Democrats in 2008. Not only is the state now trending largely for Obama, the retirement of Pete Domenici from the US Senate means that the first of two Fighting Udalls^TM will win a Senate seat here. New Mexico has a heavily Hispanic, heavily youthful population with no particular attachment to the Republican party. Unless the Obama Presidency is catastrophic, we might well see this State stay blue much like Minnesota has done, in future cycles.

The Republicans in New Mexico also shot themselves in the foot in the State as both Representatives Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce attempted to get the Republican nomination for the Senate. The primary was one of the bloodiest ones in years, resulting in a nose-dive of approval ratings for both candidates before Pearce finally won the nomination. The result is two House seats in the 1^st and 2^nd that are leaning Democrat at the moment and a not-very-close Senate race in which Tom Udall has commanded a double digit lead for a few months now.

Colorado (Bush by 5%) – Obama +6.6

Where the Democratic surge in New Mexico is powered by an ever-growing Hispanic electorate, the Democratic surge in Colorado is driven by two groups – the well-educated voters and the young voter. Colorado, a heavily conservationist state, has been getting progressively more purple in the past few elections. In 2004, Democrat Ken Salazar won a Senate seat here against Pete Coors (of Coors brewing fame), and another Democratic Senator will join him in the form of Mark Udall, a proud member of the Fighting Udalls^TM.

In the Colorado 4^th District, well-known hater of homosexuals Marilyn Musgrave has all but lost her House seat already, as the Republican National Committee has given her seat up for dead by pulling funding more than a month ago. The only thing that would make this sweeter is if her opponent happened to be homosexual. The Democratic candidate here is Betsy Markey, who like her former boss Ken Salazar, will attract a heavy Republican/Independent following in a state where Republicans outnumber Democrats by 9 points.

Wyoming (Bush by 40%) – McCain +25.2

A state Bush won by 40% will not become competitive in one election cycle. In Wyoming, there’s a close house race between Democrat Gary Trauner and former state treasurer Republican Cynthia Lummis.  Trauner nearly won this race two years ago, but that was against a very flawed incumbent, known for making stupid remarks.  Lummis doesn’t have that problem, and recent polling shows Lummis getting the undecided voters.  She will most likely win. 

North Dakota

Nebraska (Bush by 33%) – McCain +14.5

In Nebraska, the only thing to see is the 2^nd congressional district.  Nebraska gives splits it’s electoral votes by district, giving 2 to the winner of the state, and one electoral vote per district.  Obama has been making a vain play for that lone vote the same way McCain is trying to win one of Maine’s electoral votes.

It’s never happened before, and most likely won’t happen now either. Although he won’t win the race to replace Senator Chuck Hagel (R), keep an eye out on Scott Kleeb – a young Democrat rancher and educator who has done well in a consistently conservative district in Western Nebraska.

What to Watch for

Wave Effect

The first few states covered here will go for Obama easily. The trick is seeing how much Obama wins states like Minnesota and Wisconson, and to a lesser extent, Colorado and New Mexico, by. A strong showing in states like Colorado and New Mexico could signal strengthening ties between the Democrats and the Hispanic community, something that will have a large impact not only in the West, but in the Southwest as well.

If Obama wants a landslide, he’ll have to take Colorado and New Mexico by large margins.

Highlighted Matchup:

US Senate

Minnesota

Norm Coleman (R-Incumbent)    vs     Al Franken (D)        vs        Dean Barkley (I)

The race certainly has its share of characters with Norm Coleman being the former Democratic mayor of St. Paul now running as a Republican Incumbent and Franken being a comedian best known for his books attacking conservative talk radio and the Fox News Channel.

Coleman is the most well-known of the 2002 Republican Senate wave that has now largely been turned back (as John Sununu is losing in New Hampshire, Saxby Chambliss is fighting for his life in Georgia and Jim Talent has already been unseated by Claire McCaskill), but his victory came largely because of the poor handling of the remembrance (it was not a funeral) ceremony of the Senator Paul Wellstone – who lost his life in a plane crash while campaigning for re-election against Coleman. Still, the DFL can’t seem to avoid shooting themselves in the foot as their nomination of Franken has come back to haunt them as Coleman and the Republicans have been using his well-known comedic history to accuse him of being everything from being anti-Semitic (Franken has a Jewish upbringing) to being fraudulent with his taxes (Franken actually paid more than he needed to).

Complicating matters still is the wide support for independent Dean Barkley, who is currently polling at about 18% of the vote. If early voting numbers are to believed, that support has not and will not collapse as Barkley is currently pulling 22% of early voters. Seeing as more than half of those voters who support Barkley are pro-choice Democrats, the collapse of his candidacy might be what tips the race. If Barkley’s support come polling day goes near 10%, Franken will win. If it is around 20%, Coleman will probably retain his seat.

Complicating matters still is the simple fact that polls are all over the place. Survey USA, PPP, Rasmussen, and the Star-Tribune take turns in showing one candidate with the lead, sometime swinging by as much as 10 points. The last poll taken before 11/4 by Star-Tribune shows Franken up by 4, while Survey USA’s poll from the same day shows Coleman up by 5. No one has any idea how this race will turn out.

7:00 PM Central Time The first big wave of poll closings will happen here as states as diverse as Texas, Maine and Eastern South Dakota will close their polls. A lot of interesting races to cover here and a lot of interesting trends

Pennsylvania (Kerry by 2%) – Obama +8.1 Pennsylvania might not be the best place for McCain to stake a last stand, but of all his remaining choices (since he has abandoned Iowa with his ethanol stance and abandoned Michigan with his campaign’s basic incompetency), it is the only choice he has. No other state has the ability to turnaround this election, and no other state is so perfectly suited to McCain’s strong points. Firstly, Pennsylvania has no early-voting system so all the ballots cast will be cast on the day of the election. That means heavy urban centers like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are marginalized and the rural counties have a greater impact. The state is also susceptible to a late run of negative ads, meaning that McCain can save his resources for a final all-out blitz. Still, despite the election laws favoring McCain, the demography of the state still heavily favors Obama. Not only is the state decently democratic, but Pennsylvania has been hard hit by the current economic troubles. Not only that the state has a decent amount of African-Americans, as well as more women than men. McCain certainly chose the best of the bunch, but that’s more damning with faint praise. Republicans, though, stand a much better chance at keeping their Pennsylvania house seats, and maybe even picking up some additional seats. The seats of Republican incumbent Phil English (PA-3) is still considered a tossup, but three once-vulnerable Republican representatives in Jim Gerlach (PA-6), Charlie Dent (PA-15), and Tim Murphy (PA-18) have solidified their leads late. The Democrats, meanwhile, are already fighting desperately for the seats of Christopher Carney (PA-10) and Paul Kanjorski (PA-11) and the addition of John Murtha (PA-12) to the embattled incumbents category doesn’t help the Dems. Yet, it’s not all clear yet for the Republicans as a wave can still sweep away many seats for the G.O.P. The gains made in the Congressional count in Pennsylvania will be indicative of the overall gains we can expect from the Dems nationwide.

New Jersey(Kerry by 7%) – Obama +14.5 Though not nearly as liberal as neighboring New York, New Jersey has been a democratic stronghold since the early 1990s when its whole Senate delegation finally went Democratic. The state has an interesting North-South dynamic with the New York-influenced south being much more liberal (and much more populated) than its Southern counties. Still, as far as general elections go, not much to see here. Obama will easily win New Jersey??s electoral votes, but there are two important house elections in the 3^rd and 7^th congressional districts.  In the 7th district Leonard lance (R) and Linda Stender (D) are racing to win the seat of retiring rep Mike Ferguson (R).  Stender almost won in 2006, and lance barely won his primary, the race is currently either a tossup or a lean dem.  In the 3^rd Chris Myers (R) is running to replace retiring rep James Saxton.  His opponent, state senator John Adler (D) has an advantage due to the partisan makeup of the district, money, and a favorable year.  

Maine (Kerry by 9%) – Obama +14.5 Maine has an odd way of choosing their electors.  Unlike most states, they award the winner of each congressional district the districts electoral vote.  No candidate has ever won the state without getting all of the votes, but McCain is trying to change that.  He’s campaigning in the more conservative second congressional district, which stretches east of Portland all the way up to Canada.  He won’t win though.  While he is the type of Republican who could win it, the republican party of Maine is in shambles.  Their nominee for governor barely broke 30% with an unpopular sitting governor, and a three way split of the left.  Maine will go solidly for Obama, in both districts, while Susan Collins (R-me) will win re-election easily as well despite a well-funded and well-ran campaign from Democrat Tom Allen.

Non Rural? New Hampshire

Mississippi (Bush by 20%) – McCain +11.3 Mississippi is an odd animal. Though segregation has been illegal for quite awhile now, the voters in Mississippi are heavily segregated by race. Almost all of the African-American here will vote Democrat while its Caucasian population votes more heavily Republican than any other state in the union. McCain will win here big, but there are two congressional races worth checking out – Roger Wicker (R) needs to defend Trent Lott’s old seat in the Senate and Travis W. Childers (D) defends Roger Wicker’s old seat in the house. Both Wicker and Childers have pulled away late, but a surge in African-American voters could potentially save the candidacy of Democrat Ronnie Musgrove in his quest for the Senate. The race between Wicker and Musgrove have been especially dirty with Musgrove being accused of associating with homosexual cowboys in attack ads, often airing immediately after ads featuring Musgrove describing the death of his father and its impact on his life. Oh Roger Wicker, I wish I knew how to quit you.

Massachusetts (Kerry by 25%) – Obama +19.9

The only question here is if Obama will win every county in the state.

Delaware (Kerry in 7%) – Obama +24.1

The only question here is who will replace Joe Biden if he wins the vice-presidency.

Connecticut (Kerry by 10%) – Obama +19.8

Once again no presidential quarrel here, but Connecticut does feature an interesting House race.

With Democrats Chris Murphy (CT-6) and Joe Courtney (CT-2) both nursing leads, the most contentious race of this state is in the 4^th District, where Republican Chris Shays is fighting to remain the final bastion of Republican representation in the congressional delegation of the entire New England area. In liberal Connecticut, Shays is running on a platform of Pro-Gay Marriage and anti-Iraq war as well as new environmental standards for our country. This strategy of moderate appeal helped Shays barely survive the last two elections, but a wave year can completely sweep the 21-year Congressional veteran out, despite his moderate-liberal views.

Maryland (Kerry by 13%) – Obama +23

In Maryland, Obama will win quickly, but an interesting house race is brewing.  Months ago, moderate republican rep. Gilchrest lost his primary against Andy Harris and turned this into a race.  Harris, who is backed by the anti-tax anti-regulation Club For Growth, is seen as a bit of an extremist in this district, turning a normally safe district into a race for Democrat Frank Cravotil JR.  It’s currently too close to call, but I’d say Harris’ fate lies with Obama’s margin of victory.

Texas (Bush by 23%) – McCain +10.8

Texas seems to be the target of hostility for a lot of people. Maybe that’s because it deftly combines a “we’re really awesome” mentality with a “we’re not actually that awesome” reality without a sense of irony or humility. Regardless of the deficit between Texas’ perceived awesomeness and their actual awesomeness, what is not in doubt is that, in this election at least, Texas will be voting Republican, and solidly so.

And no one typifies the Texan arrogance better than Senator John Cornyn, the hardest name to spell in the US Senate. Cornyn is an oil man who is now an internet folk-hero for his campaign video that, among other things, features a herd of stampeding horses, liberal use of the cracking whip, a sheriff badge, and a showdown between Cornyn, his lovable but immoral ethnic sidekick Tuco, and the amoral mercenary Angel Eyes. Yet, despite his cowboy fantasies, Cornyn will have little problem being re-elected because the rest of Texas also apparently has cowboy fantasies. His opponent, Rick Noriega, is a Vietnam veteran and an internet darling, but his fundraising simply couldn’t match the output of Big John Cornyn.

The House races in Texas are all geared to maintain the status quo as Texas is one of the most Gerrymandered states in the country. The only seat that might change hands is that of Democratic Incumbent Nick Lampson (TX-22), who has the unfortunate duty of defending a seat in the heart of what used to be Tom Delay country (The current heart of Tom Delay country lies between the set of Hardball and his parole officer‘s home. Seriously America, why is this man still on my TV?)

Yet, despite all the forces of conservatism in the state, there are strong signs for a future Democratic upset in Texas. Not only are Hispanics and African Americans nearly 45% of the constituency in Texas, but it also has a large (24.7%) youth population. Still, this is balanced out by a large number of Evangelicals, gun owners and traditional Republicans in this state. Texas might eventually turn blue, but probably not until this current batch of leaders retire.

Oklahoma (Bush by 32%) – McCain +25.7

This is the Republican version of Massachusetts, except with a better College football team.

Missouri (Bush by 7%) – McCain +0.2

Missouri is a swing state based on the strength of its utter mediocrity. Its Democrat-Republcian-Independent self ID currently stands at 35-36-29, one of the most consistently average in the nation. It’s minority populations aren’t Mississippi or Texas high, but it also not South Dakota low. It’s not overly rural or overly urban. Heck, even this state’s sports teams are just ok, including University of Missouri’s football team, which might be the most overrated team ever. The only thing that stands out about the state, really, is the fact that it features a lot of self-identified Evangelicals.

It is on the back of these people that Bush won the election here in 2004. This year, the utterly average amount of youth voters in Missouri is working to balance out the ground game advantage here. Missouri, like Pennsylvania, do not have early voting so it’s an all or nothing state. Obama’s large number of field offices should give him some advantage here.

In the Congressional races, Missouri features two moderately interesting races in its 6^th and 9^th districts where moderate Democrats will compete against moderate Republicans in a debate of who better represents centrist values. In the words of Freshmen everywhere - SHOOT.ME.NOW!

Tennessee (Bush by 14%) – McCain +12.9

The only drama in this state was if African-American candidate Harold Ford Jr. would run for US Senate again after being accused of being desirous of white women by the Republicans of 2006. Ford Jr. chose to sit this one out, so this state has lost all relevance.

Yet, Tennessee would not go quietly into the night and reiterated their claim the most redneck state in the union by being the only state to feature a State Senator from the NASCAR party. Still, for old times sake, I wish Tennessee would bust out the race baiting ads again. I would love to know whether Barack Obama has designs on women of other races.

Call me Barack!

6:30 PM Central Time

THE Ohio Poll Closes – Ohio, North Carolina, West Virginia

North Carolina (Bush by 12%) – Obama +1

North Carolina will be crucial this time around.  Obama currently leads by a thin margin against McCain, but the very fact that he’s competitive speaks volumes.  This race won’t be called until far into the night, but Obama could pull off an upset.  McCain is working with little room for error, and he cannot be the first republican since Gerald Ford to lose North Carolina. North Carolina enjoys a heavily active minority and a good number of unions, so Obama has a demographic advantage to balance out the disproportionate number of Republicans in the state. Keep an eye out for the length of lines in this state, though current governor (and possible future Senate candidate) Mike Easley (D) has been better than most about keeping voting easy and well-supplied.

There’s a rematch house race in the North Carolina 8^th district between Republican rep Robin Hayes and Democratic social studies teacher Larry Kissel.  Kissel lost by less than 400 votes last time around, and could likely win this year.  The district has had some pretty heavy turnout so far favoring Kissel.

In the gubernatorial race, democratic Lt. Governor Bev Purdue is in a tossup election with republican Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory. North Carolina hasn’t elected a republican since 1988, but this could be their year.

Purdue leads heavily (as all North Carolina democrats do) in early voting, and current Democratic governor Mike Easley is quite popular. She has a slim lead in overall polls, but is running a very competent campaign.

Ohio (Bush by 2%) – Obama +3.4

The bellwether of 2004 and the home of a crucial 20 electoral votes, Democrats have been on an upswing here of late, electing a now uber-popular democratic governor (Ted Strickland), moderately popular democratic senator (Sherrod Brown) and a new Democratic house member in 2006. 

Democrats look to pick up between 1-3 seats this year, possibly more depending on of it’s a wave or not.  McCain has been focusing a lot of time in this state, and stands a good chance.  No republican has won the presidency without Ohio.  It’s also a state Obama lost in the primary.  Still, the economy has the landscape favoring the democrats, and Ohio republicans are still covered in the stench of former governor Bob Taft, who left office with a 19% approval rating.  Obama is currently leading and pulling away according to all poll data, but McCain is still well within striking distance.  When discussing Ohio, one must also remember the incidences of long lines in heavy urban areas in 2004. If the votes in Columbus and Cleveland (and to a lesser degree, Cincinnati) are suppressed by long lines, McCain definitely has a better chance to snatch victory.

Introduction

For all of those who have no had a chance (READ: Is not nearly as nerdy) to keep up with the election, here is a quick and dirty guide to the election. First a few ground rules and general things to keep in mind.

Not all polls are created equal

Just because John Zogby has a poll with McCain +1 nationally doesn’t mean that McCain is actually +1. More than likely, it means that John Zogby just loves to shower himself with attention. It is important to analyze the voters models used to generate these polls as well as the questions asked of the responders. Are third party candidates included? Are young voters well represented? Does it account for increased turnout among certain demographics? These are all questions that must be asked of polls before we accept them at face value.

Some polls are greater than others as far as their accuracy. Don’t be shocked if we don’t include the latest numbers for some polls, because quite frankly, few polls are worth the trouble.

Inherent Bias

Both authors of this document fully admit their life-long affiliation with the Democratic Party. We’re both Democrats, but we try our best to keep biases out, though that tends to be difficult at times. I have my soap boxes, Taylor has his too. We’ll try to be objective, but we make no promises.

And if you’re wondering why all the Republican pictures have flags in the background, it’s because it is impossible to find any without. It’s like part of their outfit.

Basic Structure

This document is arranged chronologically, by closing time. If you want to hear about Alaska, I suggest you flip to the back. The quicker a state closes its polls, the sooner they will be covered. Along with the Presidential races, several Senate, House and Governors races will also be covered. Next to name of every state, you’ll see how it voted in 2004 (for whom and by how much) as well as the current projected winner by Fivethirtyeight.com. Under every highlighted race, you’ll find important demographic data, voter stats and nuggets of info as well the occasional piece of commentary and bad joke. It is our supreme wish that you find this document useful.

-Xiao Xi Zhang and Taylor Poro

5:00 PM Central Time

First Polls Close – Eastern Kentucky and Most of Indiana (Bush in 2004)

Indiana (Bush by 23.7%) – McCain +1.5

Indiana has been a surprising swing state so far this election and has been a target of the Obama campaign since the early days of the election cycle. Obama has devoted a large amount of resources to opening 42 field offices in the state, with a great concentration in the largely rural Eastern part.

McCain has largely ignored the state, with good reason as it’s gone Democratic exactly once in the last 15 elections, and has a 14% advantage in Republicans vs. Democrats Identification and has demographic trends which heavily favor the Republicans (large gun ownership rate, large rural population). Current polls have McCain leading, but not by enough to make this race comfortable.

There’s a race worth watching in the Indiana 9^th district, in what is probably the most personal race of this election cycle.

Kentucky (Bush by 20%) – McCain +13.6

Proof positive that voter self-identification does not always dictate their vote, Kentucky actually has a democratic advantage in the number of registered voters. Despite this, it will easily go McCain this election cycle.

Some of Kentucky’s polls close at five, while others at six, so all of the results will not be released until six.  When all of the polls close, John McCain will be declared the winner easily, as almost every aspect of the Kentucky demographic map favors the Republican Party.

The more interesting aspect of the Kentucky will be the election for US senator.  The incumbent, Mitch McConnell is the Republican minority leader and was thought to be in a safe race.  In the last few weeks however, nursing home magnate Bruce Lunsford has been closing the gap, and keeping the race with McConnell close.  As McConnell is the minority leader, he’ll face especially strong retaliation from an anti-incumbent mood, as well as resistance from voters in an anti-Republican mood.  McConnell’s money and the state’s strong republican lean will favor him, as will McCain’s coattails in the state.  It also helps McConnell that Lunsford has already lost two statewide primaries, and has somewhat high negatives. 

However, despite the fact that Lunsford seems to have topped out at about 44% of the vote, McConnell’s support for the bailout weights heavily against him here. Kentucky has an outside shot at being a wave seat, but the fact that this seat is in endanger at all is indicative of the strength of the Republican brand nation-wide. A loss for McConnell here, or even a strong showing by Lunsford, might jeopardize the seat of Republican Senator Jim Bunnings, who is running for re-election in 2010. Bunnings have neither the popularity or the clout of McConnell and is a serious weak spot for the GOP in 2010.

Trends to Watch:

Turnout!

Both Indiana and Kentucky are interesting states to gauge the strength of the GOP GOTV effort and the amount of new voter turnout for this election. Indiana has traditionally had one of the lowest voting rates of the nation (at around 55%), and a huge push by new voters can push Obama over the top there.

Eastern Kentucky has traditionally been one of the most conservative areas in the nation, and a poor turnout there could mean there’ll be lower turnout in the conservative South. A low conservative turnout could end the race before California closes its polls and have huge impact on several crucial down-ticket races.

Highlighted Matchup:

US House

Indiana 9^th

Baron P. Hill (D-Incumbent)               vs                  Mike Sodrel (R)

They say that politics is a game of characters, and if that’s true, then this race definitely takes precedence over all others - including that of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. For the past 6 years, Republican Mike Sodrel and Democrat Baron P. Hill have been busy re-enacting a political version of the Battle of Somme with great financial casualties for both.

In 2002, Sodrel barely lost to Baron P. Hill in his challenge for Hill’s seat, only to beat Hill in 2004. His stay in the House was neither long nor storied as he lost to Hill for the seat 2 years later. Not satisfied with two defeats, Sodrel now expects to challenge him in round 4 of their bout. This year, Hill’s fundraising far outpaces Sodrel’s and he’s expected to have an easier time at re-election. Yet, despite this, there is still significant and quite vicious exchange of words between the two men.

This series of elections between the two men have featured everything - a demanded recount by Hill in 2004, voting machine errors in both 2004 and 2006, Hill walking across the state of Ohio (literally walking) in order to meet with voters, Sodrel funding his own campaign through his personal fortune, a stereotypically rich and conservative Texan millionaire injecting his money into the campaign, visits and fundraisers by both Presidents Clinton and Bush, and more money spent on negative ads that would make Karl Rove blush (or flush with excitement) than any other Indiana district. Really, the battle between these two men has been a microcosm of our last 8 years of politics.

The strength of Sodrel’s showing, more importantly, will be a good indicator for the state of Indiana. If Baron Hill is able to put Sodrel away by double digits, that means good things for Obama.

6:00 PM Central Time

Blue in the Land of Dixie – Georgia, Virginia, South Carolina, Vermont, Rural New Hampshire, Western Kentucky, Rest of Indiana, and Eastern Florida

Georgia (Bush by 17%) – McCain +3.7

Home to one of the most contentious races of the 2002 elections, Georgia has always been an odd duck in the Solid South. With its growing minority population (non-Whites make up 1/3 of the State’s population) and a large base of young voters, a consistent turnout effort could swing the state to the Democratic column for good in the next few elections.

Early polls have been promising in that regard, as the African American turnout during early voting has accounted for 35% of the total votes. That has caused a large lead 55-40 lead for Barack Obama, though he trails in overall polls 47-44. Keep an eye out on both the African-American turnout and the returns from the Atlanta suburbs, as good results in either area would spell trouble for Republicans in 2008 and possibly in the future.

Obama has recently restarted buying air time in Georgia both to take an outside shot at the state’s 13 electoral votes and to help out Democratic US Senate Nominee Jim Martin.

Along with a close presidential race and a hot Senate race, Georgia is also home to two moderately contested house races. Both John Barrow (D-Georgia 13^th) and Jim Marshall (D-Georgia 8^th) barely survived their Republican gerrymandered districts in 2006. Their races should be easier this year and both races are leaning Democrat right now.

South Carolina (Bush by 17%) – McCain +9.7

South Carolina is another state that SHOULD go straight into McCain’s column upon polls closing.  However, high African American turnout could make the state somewhat competitive, and Obama is likely to do better in South Carolina than Kerry did.  There are also two interesting house seats which could turn blue, depending on turnout. 

In SC-01, a survey USA poll puts Linda Ketner five points behind Henry brown (R).  With an African American electorate of 20%, a surge of voters could put Ketner over the top.  What’s interesting is that Linda is an openly gay woman, who could actually win a house seat in the Deep South. 

Senator (and top McCain surrogate) Lindsey Graham was thought to be somewhat vulnerable during the height of the Republican panic, but that turned out for naught. It might have something to do with the fact that the Democrat’s pool of available candidates is bird-bath shallow here.

Vermont (Kerry by 20%) – Obama +24.6

Vermont will be a gauge on the presidential election, but not a very big one.  If McCain is able to keep Obama in the low 50’s then he may be having a very good night.  Conversely, if Obama gets 64% of the vote or higher, then this will be a good night for him, as it would be the most a Democrat has won there since Lyndon Baines Johnson. 

The gubernatorial race should be more interesting since it’s a three person race, and if none of the candidates gets a majority of the votes it goes to the legislature where the Democrats have a 2/3’s majority.  Neither the democratic challenger, Gaye Symington, nor independent activist Anthony Pollina has run very good campaigns though, and the incumbent governor Jim Douglas is likely to be re-elected.

Rural New Hampshire (Kerry by 1%) – Obama +9.8

New Hampshire’s odd election rules means that various parts of the state close their polls at different times. It is a confusing set of election rules that is a part of New Hampshire’s efforts to become the most confusing state in the Union.

Furthermore, New Hampshire is notoriously difficult to predict (READ: the election and primaries are the only things they have going for them and they’ll milk it for all it’s worth). This is both McCain country, and Hillary country.  New Hampshire will be the first test of the Palin effect.  Palin was brought in to lure Hillary voters away from Obama, specifically older, white women.