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[Read More]election guide part 5 - The Home Front
9:00 PM Central Time Home Stretch – Iowa, Idaho, Utah, Nevada and Montana G.W. Bush swept these states on his way to the presidency in 2004, but Barack Obama and Howard Dean’s 50 states strategy has paid heavy dividends in three of the 5 states. These states will be a continuation of Barack Obama’s wave. Iowa (Bush by 1%) – Obama +11.7 Bush narrowly won this state in 2004 and John McCain nonsensically and publically came out against ethanol in the early days of the campaign. If you’re going to sell out the rest of your beliefs, why is ethanol such a sticking point? Regardless, McCain’s bad decision has cost him Iowa’s electoral votes. Iowa has a 36-34-30 split of Republicans-Democrats-Independents, so this will always be a pretty moderate state. Yet, this year, the weakness of the GOP Ticket is readily apparent as for the first time in three election cycles, the Republicans will not muster a challenge against long-time Democratic Senator Tom Harkin. Likewise, the Republicans stand to lose Tom Latham’s long-embattled house seat in the Iowa 4th District, but Latham has pulled steadily ahead as of late. This is the Bush state that is most assuredly going to go to Obama this cycle. Idaho (Bush by 39%) – McCain +20.6 Despite their football fields being blue, the fields (potato patches?) of Idaho will always be red. Utah (Bush by 46%) – McCain +25.9 If John McCain were to suddenly suffer an illness and replaced his candidacy with a card-board cut out of Osama Bin Laden French kissing Sarah Palin, Obama would win this election 532-6. The 6 would come from Utah and Western Nebraska. Nevada (Bush by 3%) – Obama +4.9 What special about Nevada isn’t that two of its republican house seats are tossups, or that it’s a swing state on the presidential level. What’s special is that it has increased its number of registered voters by 30% in the last four years. This is a whole new electorate from the last presidential election and worth keeping an eye on. In the 2nd district, republican rep Heller is in a close race with democrat Jill Derby and in the 3rd district republican Jon porter is in a tossup with 2006 gubernatorial nominee Dina Titus. Tossups both ways. As for the presidential level, lean Obama. The strong and growing stronger union presence in Nevada is also noteworthy – this will show up in the Las Vegas and Reno areas. Montana (Bush by 20%) – McCain +.02 Obama may very well win Montana, though it will be close. No Democrat for president has won Montana with a majority of the votes since Johnson in 1964. There are a number of factors to look at. For one, Obama has campaigned there heavily, advertising in the cheap market, and making appearances. Obama also won very big during the primary. Democrats have also been doing a lot better there of late, winning the Governor’s race in 2004 (Brian Schweitzer), and a Senate seat in 2006 (Jon Tester) as well as an easy re-election for Democrat Max Baucus in 2008. The polls have shown Obama and McCain very close, so it’ll probably go down to the wire. A factor hurting McCain is the fact that Ron Paul is on the ballot in Montana. Paul will likely take votes away from both nominees, but more from McCain than Obama. Two counties to watch are Missoula County, (home to U Montana Missoula, GO GRIZ!) and Park County. Park is the bellwether; it goes for the winner every time. In Missoula, Obama needs to get about two thirds of the vote to have a chance. If Obama leads in the beginning it’s a good sign for him. Missoula County will come in first, then areas more beneficial to McCain. If McCain starts with a lead he will most likely keep it throughout the night. What’s interesting is how the nomination of the Republican candidate for senate, and Democratic candidate for the house seat were such epic fails. Republicans tried to get reprehensive Denny Rehburg to run, but he declined. Then they settled for state rep Lange. He ran a good primary campaign, and then primary night happened. He lost in a freak upset to Bob Kelleher. Kelleher is a perennial candidate who has never won a nomination until now. He has run as a member of the green party, Democratic Party, and Republican Party. He advocated changing the political system to a parliamentary one. For the house, the democrats nominated John Driscoll. His plan to win is to backpack through the mountains, and ride Obama’s coattails. Highlighted Matchup: US House Idaho 1st Bill Sali (R-Incumbent) vs Walt Minnick (D) Republican Bill Sali won this race two years ago, but his problem is that, well, he’s a jerk. He’s the kind of arrogant and ignorant person who shouldn’t get into politics, but somehow managed to sneak through. This has not made Sali popular with anyone in the entire state of Idaho, as shown by the sample of quotes given below: "That idiot is just an absolute idiot" - Republican Idaho House Speaker Bruce Newcomb "I would not and do not and cannot endorse a liar for Congress" - Republican Canyon County Commissioner Robert Vasquez (to Sali) "If you want to debate this, I'll put the House at ease and we can go back into my office and I'll throw you out the window." - U.S. Rep. Mike Simpson, R-Idaho, as a member of the Idaho House "The third floor wasn't high enough. You should have taken him up to the fourth floor." - Simpson's fellow Idaho House members, in response to the above quote "Bruce has been a great speaker of the House," Otter said. "And as he told me, he learned everything that he knows from Mike Simpson. And that is why every time he has a bad day, he goes and beats the hell out of Bill Sali." - Idaho's Republican Governor Butch Otter, in reference to Speaker Newcomb Walt Minnick is a well-funded, well-tempered conservative Democrat running mainly on a platform of change and populism, as well as the largely evident fact that he is not Bill Sali. Bill Sali’s current campaign has consisted of him personally heckling Walt Minnick during a campaign stop. Not a surrogate, not a staffer, but Bill Sali personally went out of his way to heckle Minnick. Stay classy, Bill. 10:00 PM Central Time OBAMA NATION! – California, Washington, Oregon, Hawai’i This final wave of continental states and Hawai’i will go heavily towards Obama. There is really no state in question here, but some close down-ticket races remain. California (Kerry by 9%) – Obama +20.6 Despite its heavily liberal reputation, California is well-segregated into a very liberal coast and a moderate-staunchly conservative interior. For a bastion of liberalism, it’s not that well educated, it doesn’t feature a lot of unemployment, and the State government has been surprisingly incompetent in the past few years. California also closes at 10. California will go heavily to Obama, but because the districts are chopped up into hyper-partisan fiefdoms, only one congressman is in trouble. In the republican leaning 4th congressional district, which voted for bush 61/39, democrat Charlie brown is leading Republican Tom McClintock in the battle of the coolest names of this entire election cycle. Mcclintock’s problem is that he has a reputation as a carpetbagger. He’s been running for statewide office for years, but always from the southern part of the state. Now he’s running for a district in the northern part of state. It’s still a lean republican district, but Charlie Brown might just win and give John Stewart and Stephen Colbert the easiest candidate joke in the history of time. Washington (Kerry by 7%) – Obama +14.4 Washington, more than California, fits the bill of a typically liberal state. It is well-educated, well-funded with a high level of high-tech jobs. Still, there are staunch conservative regions in eastern Washington which provides the only fireworks for this race. Obama will win the state easily. The real drama is in the Washington 8th District where Dave Reichert (R-Incumbent), the sheriff who caught the Greenway Killer faces off again against Darcy Burner, whose campaign strategy so far involved telling everyone she’s not a Republican. In such a political climate, this strategy might just work. Oregon (Kerry by 4%) – Obama +14.8 The only state in the Union with a completely mail-in system of votes, Oregon and the majority of Oregonites has already decided to cast their votes. The results are overwhelmingly for Obama and strongly against moderate Republican Senator Gordon Smith, who looks like a sure casualty of George W. Bush in his fight against state Senator Jeff Merkley. Smith has been well known this election cycle by putting the faces of Democrats in his campaign ads, such as that of the State’s other Senator Ron Wyden and even Barack Obama – much to the chagrins of the Democrats involved. Hawai’i (Kerry by 9%) – Obama +27.5 Hawai’i is the most liberal state in the nation with an all-Democrat congressional delegation. It’s also Obama’s state of birth. This will not be close. Highlighted Matchup: Governor Washington Christine Gregoire (D-Incumbent) vs Dino Rossi (G.O.P) Rossi is identified as GOP because he insisted that he be identified as such on the ballots in the state of Washington. This speaks volumes about the unpopularity of the Republican brand in the Northwest. This campaign is an offshoot of the 2004 race, in which Gregoire narrowly beat Rossi by .01% of the vote. Needless to say, there were accusations of voter fraud. The bad feeling between these two candidates can be seen by the tone of their negative ads, in which Rossi has accused Gregoire of, among other things, enabling pedophiles to operate within the state of Washington and failing to take enough Casino money from the local Native-American tribes. Gregoire, for her part, is playing the role of the consummate politician pulling stunts like traveling the state in an entirely biodiesel bus. The fundraising for this race has been intense and this election will be close, though not nearly as close as it was in 2004. 12:00 AM Central Time Last Chance – Alaska Alaska (Bush by 25%) – McCain +14.2 At one time during the cycle, Alaska, of all places, was thought of as possibly in play, but that thought vanished quickly with the selection of Sarah Palin as the Republican vice-presidential candidate. With an expected electorate of about 300,000 people, Absentee ballots will have a large impact on the results of the Alaskan race. This is why we shouldn’t expect an admission of defeat from Ted Stevens tonight or even in the next week. Democratic candidate Mark Begich holds a 22 pt lead in the Senate race as, at least for state wide races, the state is turning increasingly purple. Highlighted Matchup: US House Alaska 1st Don Young (Republican Incumbent) vs Ethan Berkowitz (D) Like Ted Stevens, Don Young is also embroiled in a federal investigation for not reporting gifts and bribes. Unlike Stevens, Young has yet to be formally charged so he could conceivably hold onto his seat for another term. Young is a 17 term congressman from Alaska, but the recent rash of scandals from the Alaska state party has made this seat unpalatable for Alaskans. Enter Ethan Berkowitz who along with Senate candidate Mark Begich has ran one of the best campaigns of the cycle. Berkowtiz is currently leading by 5 or more pts in most polls, meaning that for the first time in 30 years, Don Young had to actually campaign. This will be one of the last races to be called in the entire election.
Election Guide Part 4: A New Hope
7:30 PM Central Time Snack Break Arkansas (Bush by 9%) – McCain +11.1 For some god awful reason, Arkansas closes its polls at 7:30 while the nation is taking a break between the polls closing in the Mississippi River Valley region and the Midwest region. There is no race that is close here, not even the Clintons could sway Arkansas to vote for Obama. To make matters even more boring, the ENTIRE congressional delegation is running unopposed. Yeah, way to give an effort guys. Mark Pryor (D) is possibly the luckiest Senator alive. 8:00 PM Central Time Stat-padding - Obama’s Search for a Landslide This is where the race gets interesting, with a bevy of red states expected to go blue and a bevy of swing states expected to become strongly Democratic. There are also quite a few Senate races and house races which can become Dems pickups. This is the most important set of polls for this part of the election if the goal is to enter the White House with a clear mandate. New York(Kerry by 19%) – Obama +25.4 New York will be the big prize at eight for a number of reasons. The first is a look at the exit polls and the margins. This is a key state to see if Hillary voters are showing any residual anger towards Obama. If Obama does as well as Kerry and Gore or better, he’s in good shape, otherwise he might be having trouble with Hillary voters. There are also a bunch of house races that are close, and look like good pickups for the democrats. In the 26th district, Alison Kryzan won a surprising primary victory against two better known opponents, putting the seat of retiring Republican Tom Reynolds into the Republican’s category. In the 29th district, Randy Kohl is in trouble for saying that Democrats want Americans to suffer for personal gain. He wasn’t running much of a campaign anyway. It’s the most republican district in New York though, so he could pull off an upset. The 13th district of New York is so odd it needs its own paragraph. This became a race when the incumbent, Vito Fossella (R-NY) got caught drunk driving. It was later revealed he was racing back to see his SECRET SECOND FAMILY. Then he withdrew his name from nomination, and chose Frank Powers. Power’s anti-gay rhetoric angered his son so much, that Frank Powers JR. announced he would seek the nomination of the libertarian party to run against him. JR. failed, and announced he would seek the anarchist’s party nomination. The anarchist’s party assembled long enough to tell him that organized anarchists is an oxymoron, then disbanded. Then, sadly, frank powers SR. died. Republicans scrambled, and brought in Robert Straniere as their candidate. The only problem is that he’s not very well liked within the party. The Democrats meanwhile chose city councilman Mike McMahon. This seat isn’t notable for being close, McMahon will win, but rather, is notable because it’s the most likely to become an episode of law and order. Dun-duhn. Rhode Island (Kerry by 21%) – Obama +24.5 Hey, you’re reading this! Why? Rhode Island has already voted for Obama.
Minnesota (Kerry by 3%) – Obama +10.1
The land of 10,000 lakes, Minnesota has been one of the most storied states of this election. Not only did it host the Republican National Convention, which was cut short because of Hurricane Gustav, but it also featured three of the toughest races this election cycle.
In recent years, Minnesota has gone from a tossup state to a state that is reliably Democrat, even if the elections are a bit close at times. This makes sense considering all the demographics of the state. Minnesota is home to one of the most well-educated and active (78% turnout rate) electorates in the country. The Democratic Party (known as the DFL) is also extremely well-organized, and the party always have a deep bench of Democratic candidates to choose from for every election. The presidential race has been all but decided here, but the interesting scenario is developing in the Congressional races.
Minnesota feature two districts in which Republican incumbents are fighting for their political lives. The heavily conservative 6th District is the site of an unexpectedly close race between Freshman Congresswoman Michelle Bachman and her DFL opponent Elwyn Tinklenberg after Bachman channeled her inner Joe McCarthy on national TV. The Republicans have pulled party funding from this race, so Tinklenberg might very well have lucked his way into the US House.
The other toss up district features a set two very good candidates against each other in an effort to replace retiring moderate Republican Jim Ramstad. The fight is between polished Republican state Representative Erik Paulsen against 30 year old lawyer and Iraq war veteran Ashwin Madia. If either of these candidates win, they can heavily boost their stock in their respective parties. This race is worth watching for future political implications.
Of course, there’s a Senate race too, that will be addressed in detail later.
Wisconsin (Kerry by 1%) – Obama +11.5
A more moderate version of Minnesota, Wisconsin narrowly went for Kerry (by less than .5%) in 04 and went narrowly for Gore in 2000. This year, though, there will be nothing narrow about Barack Obama’s victory here. Wisconsin has become progressively more Democrat as the labor unions grow here and as unemployment rises. Expect this one to be called early.
And because we’re obligated by contract – Russ Feingold
Western South Dakota
Louisiana(Bush by 15%) – McCain +9.9
One of the most corrupt political systems in the Union, Louisiana was thought to be the first of the Gulf States that might swing Democratic as Northern Louisiana’s minority population continues to grow in conjunction with the progressive expansion of Democratic South Louisiana – leaving only the heavily Republican districts between Baton Rouge and Monroe as an obstacle to Democratic rule.
Unfortunately, the federal government failed the people of Louisiana and the voter base in New Orleans was forever shattered by Katrina. It will take awhile for Louisiana to recover its former purple tone, but there are factors that suggest it could still turn blue in the future. Mainly, Louisiana is a very young state and still have a significant minority population that is still growing, especially in conservative North Louisiana. Still, for the purposes of this race, nothing to see here folks. McCain will win, probably by double digits.
Still, despite the changing of its electorate, Louisiana will still retain its heavily Incumbent-favoring election system. Senator Mary Landrieu (D) will retain her seat easily, as will most of Louisiana’s representatives. The lone exceptions are Dan Cazayoux (D-Incumbent) in the heavily conservative Baton Rouge region (LA-6), who won a special election by the skin of his teeth and will have to fight off another strong challenge from Republican Bill Cassidy and Independent Michael Jackson. Jackson will have an impact on this race as he is the only African-American candidate in a district that is 33% African-American.
The Democrats might pick up another house seat in the moderate 4th District located in Shreveport (North Louisiana), but that election won’t be held until December 9th.
Arizona (Bush by 11%) – McCain +4.9
There is, however some drama building in Arizona. This would seem unlikely due to it being McCain’s home state, but he is the maverick, and nothing is more maverick than losing your own state.
There are two house seats, one, a republican seat that leans Dem, and the other a Republican seat that’s a tossup. Normally, as this is the Republican nominee’s home state, his good performance would bring them across the finish line, but unfortunately for them, Kohn McCain isn’t doing very well in his home state. Recent polls have shown him within the margin of error against Obama, whereas Obama is winning his home state by large margins and will have large coattails for Democrats in Illinois.
If Arizona was a Democratic state (like Tennessee in 2000), McCain’s fight here would be understandable but Arizona has a long legacy of Republican strength. While not a strong Republican state, it is lean Republican, to likely Republican and Bush carried the state by double digits in 2004. Yet McCain hasn’t done so well there. While he’s always won election fairly easily for senate, as shown in February, Arizonians don’t like the idea of McCain for president.
While every other nominee won their home state with a minimum of high 50% of the vote, McCain failed to get a majority of votes in the primary. He won the Arizona primary with 49% of the vote. At this point, it is a very realistic possibility that should he run for Senate re-election in 2010, McCain would not win against popular Democratic governor Janet Napolitano.
The seat in the 1st district will likely go Republican, and in the 3rd district, if McCain can get at least 55% of the vote statewide, incumbent Republican John Shadegg will probably win. Otherwise Democrat Bob Lord could very well win.
New Mexico (Bush by 1%) – Obama +9.7
A state that is trending heavily Democratic, New Mexico is a state that might elect a complete ticket of Democrats in 2008. Not only is the state now trending largely for Obama, the retirement of Pete Domenici from the US Senate means that the first of two Fighting UdallsTM will win a Senate seat here. New Mexico has a heavily Hispanic, heavily youthful population with no particular attachment to the Republican party. Unless the Obama Presidency is catastrophic, we might well see this State stay blue much like Minnesota has done, in future cycles.
The Republicans in New Mexico also shot themselves in the foot in the State as both Representatives Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce attempted to get the Republican nomination for the Senate. The primary was one of the bloodiest ones in years, resulting in a nose-dive of approval ratings for both candidates before Pearce finally won the nomination. The result is two House seats in the 1st and 2nd that are leaning Democrat at the moment and a not-very-close Senate race in which Tom Udall has commanded a double digit lead for a few months now.
Colorado (Bush by 5%) – Obama +6.6
Where the Democratic surge in New Mexico is powered by an ever-growing Hispanic electorate, the Democratic surge in Colorado is driven by two groups – the well-educated voters and the young voter. Colorado, a heavily conservationist state, has been getting progressively more purple in the past few elections. In 2004, Democrat Ken Salazar won a Senate seat here against Pete Coors (of Coors brewing fame), and another Democratic Senator will join him in the form of Mark Udall, a proud member of the Fighting UdallsTM.
In the Colorado 4th District, well-known hater of homosexuals Marilyn Musgrave has all but lost her House seat already, as the Republican National Committee has given her seat up for dead by pulling funding more than a month ago. The only thing that would make this sweeter is if her opponent happened to be homosexual. The Democratic candidate here is Betsy Markey, who like her former boss Ken Salazar, will attract a heavy Republican/Independent following in a state where Republicans outnumber Democrats by 9 points.
Wyoming (Bush by 40%) – McCain +25.2
A state Bush won by 40% will not become competitive in one election cycle. In Wyoming, there’s a close house race between Democrat Gary Trauner and former state treasurer Republican Cynthia Lummis. Trauner nearly won this race two years ago, but that was against a very flawed incumbent, known for making stupid remarks. Lummis doesn’t have that problem, and recent polling shows Lummis getting the undecided voters. She will most likely win.
North Dakota
Nebraska (Bush by 33%) – McCain +14.5
In Nebraska, the only thing to see is the 2nd congressional district. Nebraska gives splits it’s electoral votes by district, giving 2 to the winner of the state, and one electoral vote per district. Obama has been making a vain play for that lone vote the same way McCain is trying to win one of Maine’s electoral votes.
It’s never happened before, and most likely won’t happen now either. Although he won’t win the race to replace Senator Chuck Hagel (R), keep an eye out on Scott Kleeb – a young Democrat rancher and educator who has done well in a consistently conservative district in Western Nebraska.
What to Watch for
Wave Effect
The first few states covered here will go for Obama easily. The trick is seeing how much Obama wins states like Minnesota and Wisconson, and to a lesser extent, Colorado and New Mexico, by. A strong showing in states like Colorado and New Mexico could signal strengthening ties between the Democrats and the Hispanic community, something that will have a large impact not only in the West, but in the Southwest as well.
If Obama wants a landslide, he’ll have to take Colorado and New Mexico by large margins.
Highlighted Matchup:
US Senate
Minnesota
Norm Coleman (R-Incumbent) vs Al Franken (D) vs Dean Barkley (I)
The race certainly has its share of characters with Norm Coleman being the former Democratic mayor of St. Paul now running as a Republican Incumbent and Franken being a comedian best known for his books attacking conservative talk radio and the Fox News Channel.
Coleman is the most well-known of the 2002 Republican Senate wave that has now largely been turned back (as John Sununu is losing in New Hampshire, Saxby Chambliss is fighting for his life in Georgia and Jim Talent has already been unseated by Claire McCaskill), but his victory came largely because of the poor handling of the remembrance (it was not a funeral) ceremony of the Senator Paul Wellstone – who lost his life in a plane crash while campaigning for re-election against Coleman. Still, the DFL can’t seem to avoid shooting themselves in the foot as their nomination of Franken has come back to haunt them as Coleman and the Republicans have been using his well-known comedic history to accuse him of being everything from being anti-Semitic (Franken has a Jewish upbringing) to being fraudulent with his taxes (Franken actually paid more than he needed to).
Complicating matters still is the wide support for independent Dean Barkley, who is currently polling at about 18% of the vote. If early voting numbers are to believed, that support has not and will not collapse as Barkley is currently pulling 22% of early voters. Seeing as more than half of those voters who support Barkley are pro-choice Democrats, the collapse of his candidacy might be what tips the race. If Barkley’s support come polling day goes near 10%, Franken will win. If it is around 20%, Coleman will probably retain his seat.
Complicating matters still is the simple fact that polls are all over the place. Survey USA, PPP, Rasmussen, and the Star-Tribune take turns in showing one candidate with the lead, sometime swinging by as much as 10 points. The last poll taken before 11/4 by Star-Tribune shows Franken up by 4, while Survey USA’s poll from the same day shows Coleman up by 5. No one has any idea how this race will turn out.
Election Guide Part Three: Life the Universe and Everything
7:00 PM Central Time The first big wave of poll closings will happen here as states as diverse as Texas, Maine and Eastern South Dakota will close their polls. A lot of interesting races to cover here and a lot of interesting trends
Pennsylvania (Kerry by 2%) – Obama +8.1 Pennsylvania might not be the best place for McCain to stake a last stand, but of all his remaining choices (since he has abandoned Iowa with his ethanol stance and abandoned Michigan with his campaign’s basic incompetency), it is the only choice he has. No other state has the ability to turnaround this election, and no other state is so perfectly suited to McCain’s strong points. Firstly, Pennsylvania has no early-voting system so all the ballots cast will be cast on the day of the election. That means heavy urban centers like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are marginalized and the rural counties have a greater impact. The state is also susceptible to a late run of negative ads, meaning that McCain can save his resources for a final all-out blitz. Still, despite the election laws favoring McCain, the demography of the state still heavily favors Obama. Not only is the state decently democratic, but Pennsylvania has been hard hit by the current economic troubles. Not only that the state has a decent amount of African-Americans, as well as more women than men. McCain certainly chose the best of the bunch, but that’s more damning with faint praise. Republicans, though, stand a much better chance at keeping their Pennsylvania house seats, and maybe even picking up some additional seats. The seats of Republican incumbent Phil English (PA-3) is still considered a tossup, but three once-vulnerable Republican representatives in Jim Gerlach (PA-6), Charlie Dent (PA-15), and Tim Murphy (PA-18) have solidified their leads late. The Democrats, meanwhile, are already fighting desperately for the seats of Christopher Carney (PA-10) and Paul Kanjorski (PA-11) and the addition of John Murtha (PA-12) to the embattled incumbents category doesn’t help the Dems. Yet, it’s not all clear yet for the Republicans as a wave can still sweep away many seats for the G.O.P. The gains made in the Congressional count in Pennsylvania will be indicative of the overall gains we can expect from the Dems nationwide.
New Jersey(Kerry by 7%) – Obama +14.5 Though not nearly as liberal as neighboring New York, New Jersey has been a democratic stronghold since the early 1990s when its whole Senate delegation finally went Democratic. The state has an interesting North-South dynamic with the New York-influenced south being much more liberal (and much more populated) than its Southern counties. Still, as far as general elections go, not much to see here. Obama will easily win New Jersey??s electoral votes, but there are two important house elections in the 3rd and 7th congressional districts. In the 7th district Leonard lance (R) and Linda Stender (D) are racing to win the seat of retiring rep Mike Ferguson (R). Stender almost won in 2006, and lance barely won his primary, the race is currently either a tossup or a lean dem. In the 3rd Chris Myers (R) is running to replace retiring rep James Saxton. His opponent, state senator John Adler (D) has an advantage due to the partisan makeup of the district, money, and a favorable year.
Maine (Kerry by 9%) – Obama +14.5 Maine has an odd way of choosing their electors. Unlike most states, they award the winner of each congressional district the districts electoral vote. No candidate has ever won the state without getting all of the votes, but McCain is trying to change that. He’s campaigning in the more conservative second congressional district, which stretches east of Portland all the way up to Canada. He won’t win though. While he is the type of Republican who could win it, the republican party of Maine is in shambles. Their nominee for governor barely broke 30% with an unpopular sitting governor, and a three way split of the left. Maine will go solidly for Obama, in both districts, while Susan Collins (R-me) will win re-election easily as well despite a well-funded and well-ran campaign from Democrat Tom Allen.
Non Rural? New Hampshire
Mississippi (Bush by 20%) – McCain +11.3 Mississippi is an odd animal. Though segregation has been illegal for quite awhile now, the voters in Mississippi are heavily segregated by race. Almost all of the African-American here will vote Democrat while its Caucasian population votes more heavily Republican than any other state in the union. McCain will win here big, but there are two congressional races worth checking out – Roger Wicker (R) needs to defend Trent Lott’s old seat in the Senate and Travis W. Childers (D) defends Roger Wicker’s old seat in the house. Both Wicker and Childers have pulled away late, but a surge in African-American voters could potentially save the candidacy of Democrat Ronnie Musgrove in his quest for the Senate. The race between Wicker and Musgrove have been especially dirty with Musgrove being accused of associating with homosexual cowboys in attack ads, often airing immediately after ads featuring Musgrove describing the death of his father and its impact on his life. Oh Roger Wicker, I wish I knew how to quit you.
Massachusetts (Kerry by 25%) – Obama +19.9
The only question here is if Obama will win every county in the state.
Delaware (Kerry in 7%) – Obama +24.1
The only question here is who will replace Joe Biden if he wins the vice-presidency.
Connecticut (Kerry by 10%) – Obama +19.8
Once again no presidential quarrel here, but Connecticut does feature an interesting House race.
With Democrats Chris Murphy (CT-6) and Joe Courtney (CT-2) both nursing leads, the most contentious race of this state is in the 4th District, where Republican Chris Shays is fighting to remain the final bastion of Republican representation in the congressional delegation of the entire New England area. In liberal Connecticut, Shays is running on a platform of Pro-Gay Marriage and anti-Iraq war as well as new environmental standards for our country. This strategy of moderate appeal helped Shays barely survive the last two elections, but a wave year can completely sweep the 21-year Congressional veteran out, despite his moderate-liberal views.
Maryland (Kerry by 13%) – Obama +23
In Maryland, Obama will win quickly, but an interesting house race is brewing. Months ago, moderate republican rep. Gilchrest lost his primary against Andy Harris and turned this into a race. Harris, who is backed by the anti-tax anti-regulation Club For Growth, is seen as a bit of an extremist in this district, turning a normally safe district into a race for Democrat Frank Cravotil JR. It’s currently too close to call, but I’d say Harris’ fate lies with Obama’s margin of victory.
Texas (Bush by 23%) – McCain +10.8
Texas seems to be the target of hostility for a lot of people. Maybe that’s because it deftly combines a “we’re really awesome” mentality with a “we’re not actually that awesome” reality without a sense of irony or humility. Regardless of the deficit between Texas’ perceived awesomeness and their actual awesomeness, what is not in doubt is that, in this election at least, Texas will be voting Republican, and solidly so.
And no one typifies the Texan arrogance better than Senator John Cornyn, the hardest name to spell in the US Senate. Cornyn is an oil man who is now an internet folk-hero for his campaign video that, among other things, features a herd of stampeding horses, liberal use of the cracking whip, a sheriff badge, and a showdown between Cornyn, his lovable but immoral ethnic sidekick Tuco, and the amoral mercenary Angel Eyes. Yet, despite his cowboy fantasies, Cornyn will have little problem being re-elected because the rest of Texas also apparently has cowboy fantasies. His opponent, Rick Noriega, is a Vietnam veteran and an internet darling, but his fundraising simply couldn’t match the output of Big John Cornyn.
The House races in Texas are all geared to maintain the status quo as Texas is one of the most Gerrymandered states in the country. The only seat that might change hands is that of Democratic Incumbent Nick Lampson (TX-22), who has the unfortunate duty of defending a seat in the heart of what used to be Tom Delay country (The current heart of Tom Delay country lies between the set of Hardball and his parole officer‘s home. Seriously America, why is this man still on my TV?)
Yet, despite all the forces of conservatism in the state, there are strong signs for a future Democratic upset in Texas. Not only are Hispanics and African Americans nearly 45% of the constituency in Texas, but it also has a large (24.7%) youth population. Still, this is balanced out by a large number of Evangelicals, gun owners and traditional Republicans in this state. Texas might eventually turn blue, but probably not until this current batch of leaders retire.
Oklahoma (Bush by 32%) – McCain +25.7
This is the Republican version of Massachusetts, except with a better College football team.
Missouri (Bush by 7%) – McCain +0.2
Missouri is a swing state based on the strength of its utter mediocrity. Its Democrat-Republcian-Independent self ID currently stands at 35-36-29, one of the most consistently average in the nation. It’s minority populations aren’t Mississippi or Texas high, but it also not South Dakota low. It’s not overly rural or overly urban. Heck, even this state’s sports teams are just ok, including University of Missouri’s football team, which might be the most overrated team ever. The only thing that stands out about the state, really, is the fact that it features a lot of self-identified Evangelicals.
It is on the back of these people that Bush won the election here in 2004. This year, the utterly average amount of youth voters in Missouri is working to balance out the ground game advantage here. Missouri, like Pennsylvania, do not have early voting so it’s an all or nothing state. Obama’s large number of field offices should give him some advantage here.
In the Congressional races, Missouri features two moderately interesting races in its 6th and 9th districts where moderate Democrats will compete against moderate Republicans in a debate of who better represents centrist values. In the words of Freshmen everywhere - SHOOT.ME.NOW!
Tennessee (Bush by 14%) – McCain +12.9
The only drama in this state was if African-American candidate Harold Ford Jr. would run for US Senate again after being accused of being desirous of white women by the Republicans of 2006. Ford Jr. chose to sit this one out, so this state has lost all relevance.
Yet, Tennessee would not go quietly into the night and reiterated their claim the most redneck state in the union by being the only state to feature a State Senator from the NASCAR party. Still, for old times sake, I wish Tennessee would bust out the race baiting ads again. I would love to know whether Barack Obama has designs on women of other races.
Call me Barack!
Alabama (Bush by 26%) – McCain +22.2
Mississippi’s slightly more sensible sister state, Alabama is still expected to go heavily Republican this election cycle. One thing to keep an eye on, though, is the Democrat-controlled state house and senate. Alabama’s district maps may be completely different come 2010.
Western Florida
Illinois (Kerry by 11%) – Obama +21.8
The land of coattails, this is the state where Obama’s impact will be felt in full force in the house races. The Presidential race here is a given, so is Dick Durbin’s re-election to the Senate, but the Republicans could lose a long string of house seats here as Obama turns out supporters in record numbers.
As many as five seats could go Democratic here, but it is more realistic to expect a 2-3 seat gain in Illinois. Specifically, there are two house races to keep an eye on. Mark Kirk (R-IL) is in a district that didn’t vote for bush in 04, and a district that will likely vote for Obama. He’s in a rematch with Democrat Kirk Seals. Normally rematches bode well for the incumbent, but with the hometown boy running strong, Kirk must be a bit anxious. In the 11th district, democratic state senator Debbie Halverson is leading in a race to replace retiring Rep Jerry Weller. Concrete magnate Marty Ozinga has made a race of this, keeping it a tossup, but as with the Kirk/Seals race, Obama will be a boon to Halverson.
Although these two seats are the only ones currently leaning Dem, Illinois is prime territory to be the crest of a Democratic wave. If you’re a Democrat and still entertaining 275 fantasies, this is a state to keep an eye on.
Michigan (Kerry by 3%) – Obama +12.6
I really think if John McCain loses this election, one day political scholars will look back on his decision to pull out of Michigan as the beginning of his downfall. Michigan is a state that went Kerry by only 3 points in 2004. It is a state with unpopular Democrats in the State and local offices, and it is a state where Barack Obama had no ground forces because of his choice to ignore the state in the primaries.
Michigan was also essentially disenfranchised during the primary season, leading to some well-deserved anger at the Michigan Democratic Party as well as the national Democratic Party. Still, McCain made the decision to pullout, perhaps because of the large African-American population and the poor economic conditions in the State.
It certainly doesn’t help that Michigan Republicans have been falling over themselves to endorse Obama.
The Michigan Senate race between long-time Senator Carl Levin and the his unfortunately named challenger Jack Hoogendyk is a mere formality with Levin holding a huge lead. Two Michigan moderates in the 7th and 9th districts also face pretty difficult re-election campaigns. The fate of both these seats really depend on the turnout for Obama. If Obama gets a 20 point win in Michigan, we’ll most likely see these two seats go Democratic as well.
Kansas (Bush by 25%) – McCain +13.6
The surprisingly blue Kansas will not be a big factor in this race as McCain will win here easily, as will Senator Pat Roberts, despite an add by Democratic challenger Jim Slattery that can be best described as sophomoric (it involves suggestions of urination). The only election of national importance in question is the race for the House seat from the 2nd District where Democratic Incumbent Nancy Boyeda must once-more fight off a strong Republican challenge in a heavily Republican state.
This state should stay on the national radar, as it might be the site of one of the toughest Senate races of 2010 between current Governor Kathleen Sebelius and the replacement for retiring Senator Sam Brownback.
Eastern South Dakota (Bush by 21%) – McCain +8.7
After three election cycles of tough politics, South Dakota becomes the land of same old, same old once again. The presidential race is closer than initially thought, but not enough where Obama has a chance. The Senate and state-wide house races are heavily tilted towards Senator Johnson and Representative Herseth-Sandlin. The only drama is the State senate, where the Democrats have an outside shot of obtaining a majority.
In order to do that, Dems will have to protect the seats of Scott Heidepriem and Ben Nesselhuf.
There’s also an abortion bill that will cost the state a lot of money for no good reason. It’s kind of dumb.
Parts of North Dakota (Bush by 27%) – McCain +2.7
A bunch of other states close at 8:00, many of which are important. In the Midwest, North Dakota’s polls close, and we may be looking at a close race. Despite voting for Bush by 20 points in 2004, Obama has been doing quite well in North Dakota, and could, in theory, win. Nodak has 2 dem senators and a dem house member so it’s possible, though unlikely. Still, Obama has been campaigning there for months, and hasn’t been blown out in polls, so anything’s possible.
I have no idea why North Dakota is suddenly more Democratically inclined than South Dakota despite voting more heavily for Bush in 2004. The demographic statistics suggest that there hasn’t been a sudden influx of people nor has there been a significant population shift. Given that, I have come to the conclusion that the difference is caused by the fact that North Dakota is filled with posers.
What to Watch For
No Early Voting
This batch of states feature two “swing” states in Missouri and Pennsylvania that lacks early voting. They will go a long way in answering any questions about the existence or impact of a “Bradley Effect” on this election. These two states are also going to take a long time to count all their ballots, so they’ll probably be two of the last ones called.
The speed at which Pennsylvania is called is especially important. If the State gets called before 9 for Obama, then the election is probably already over.
Highlighted Race:
Governor
Missouri
Jay Nixon (D) vs Kenny Hulshof (R)
We talked a lot about the down ticket candidate riding Presidential coattails, but here is one race where the exact opposite could be true.
Incumbent Republican governor Matt Blunt, son of Congressional leader Roy Blunt, chose a creative way to avoid being elected out - he simply chose not to run and retired with some dignity. In the vacuum, Jay Nixon has conducted one of the best campaigns in the nation, turning a tossup race into a blowout. Nixon currently leads his Republican opponent, Kenny Hulshof, by nearly 20% in a state, as we’ve said before, is middle-of-the-road in every conceivable way.
Keep an eye out on how much Nixon ends up winning this election by, as that will be demonstrative of the strength of the Democratic machinery in Missouri. If the Democrats in Missouri organize a GOTV effort like they did in 2006 (a truly impressive effort that had a large part in helping Claire McCaskill unseat Republican Jim Talent), then Barack Obama will have a much better chance of carrying the state. Furthermore, another loss by the Republicans in the state will open up some very interesting possibilities for the Dems - including a possible challenge of Republican Senator Kit Bonds in 2010.
Election guide Part 2
6:30 PM Central Time
THE Ohio Poll Closes – Ohio, North Carolina, West Virginia
North Carolina (Bush by 12%) – Obama +1
North Carolina will be crucial this time around. Obama currently leads by a thin margin against McCain, but the very fact that he’s competitive speaks volumes. This race won’t be called until far into the night, but Obama could pull off an upset. McCain is working with little room for error, and he cannot be the first republican since Gerald Ford to lose North Carolina. North Carolina enjoys a heavily active minority and a good number of unions, so Obama has a demographic advantage to balance out the disproportionate number of Republicans in the state. Keep an eye out for the length of lines in this state, though current governor (and possible future Senate candidate) Mike Easley (D) has been better than most about keeping voting easy and well-supplied.
There’s a rematch house race in the North Carolina 8th district between Republican rep Robin Hayes and Democratic social studies teacher Larry Kissel. Kissel lost by less than 400 votes last time around, and could likely win this year. The district has had some pretty heavy turnout so far favoring Kissel.
In the gubernatorial race, democratic Lt. Governor Bev Purdue is in a tossup election with republican Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory. North Carolina hasn’t elected a republican since 1988, but this could be their year.
Purdue leads heavily (as all North Carolina democrats do) in early voting, and current Democratic governor Mike Easley is quite popular. She has a slim lead in overall polls, but is running a very competent campaign.
Ohio (Bush by 2%) – Obama +3.4
The bellwether of 2004 and the home of a crucial 20 electoral votes, Democrats have been on an upswing here of late, electing a now uber-popular democratic governor (Ted Strickland), moderately popular democratic senator (Sherrod Brown) and a new Democratic house member in 2006.
Democrats look to pick up between 1-3 seats this year, possibly more depending on of it’s a wave or not. McCain has been focusing a lot of time in this state, and stands a good chance. No republican has won the presidency without Ohio. It’s also a state Obama lost in the primary. Still, the economy has the landscape favoring the democrats, and Ohio republicans are still covered in the stench of former governor Bob Taft, who left office with a 19% approval rating. Obama is currently leading and pulling away according to all poll data, but McCain is still well within striking distance. When discussing Ohio, one must also remember the incidences of long lines in heavy urban areas in 2004. If the votes in Columbus and Cleveland (and to a lesser degree, Cincinnati) are suppressed by long lines, McCain definitely has a better chance to snatch victory.
What McCain has to fight here, however, is the heavy demographic tilt against him. Ohio has a high manufacturing base, a high number of union members, and high levels of unemployment – all of which factors against McCain’s bid for a late comeback. This added with the growing number of minorities and young people in the state means that we should expect this one to be decided earlier than it was in 2004.
There are three house elections in Ohio were the Republicans are liable to lose a seat, or at least face stiff re-election campaigns. Steven Chabot will look to survive another close race after barely edging through in 2006. Both Ohio 15th and 16th will have new representatives as long-time Republicans Deborah Pryce and Ralph Regula rode off into the sunset during their party’s toughest cycle in a generation. The only Democratic congressman at risk in Ohio is Zack Space, who currently holds a small advantage over his Republican rival Ken Dailey.
West Virginia (Bush by 13%) – McCain +9.8
Three states have polls that close at 6:30, two important, the other, not so much. West Virginia does not have any competitive house races, senate race, or a competitive governor’s race. The incumbents will all get re-elected. For the presidential race, this will be an early warning sign of a wave. If Obama wins, or comes very close, it’s likely to be a wave, otherwise McCain should win comfortably.
The only thing to watch here is whether US Senator Jay Rockafeller will win by the highest margins in the country. He’s close, but he’s getting a heavy challenge from Mark Warner (Virginia) and Dick Durbin (Illinois).
What to Watch for:
It’s Freakin Ohio
Really, I’m not lying, it’s freaking Ohio. Ohio politics don’t change, the current cast is just replaced by a new one. Look for the same signs during this election as every other Ohio election - monitor turnout, monitor suppression, and expect at least one member of the Congressional delegation to murder the English language and all its children during their acceptance speech. Mary Jo Kilroy, I’m looking at you.
Highlighted Matchup:
US Senate
North Carolina
Elizabeth Dole (R-Incumbent) vs Kay Hagan (D)
For most of 2007 Dole polled under 50% for re-election, and since then, state senator Kay Hagan as been running a strong campaign. Hagan has currently held steady to a lead that hovers around 5% of the vote. For a state where the Democrats control the mechanisms of the election and in an election where the Republican brand is beyond damaged, that’s a pretty big lead to make up this late.
This campaign has been especially dirty, with rampant accusations of incompetency and corruption from both sides. Dole has even had to put out ads questioning Hagan’s faith because she received money from an atheist political action group. Hagan has responded with a lawsuit for libel, and it has become readily apparent that there is little love and even less respect between the two candidates. For the past few weeks, Dole has been in complete desperation mode. If preliminary polling data is to believed, she has every right to be as Hagan has outpolled Dole 58-40 in early voting a number that is much higher than Democrats historically and even higher than Obama’s early voting numbers.
Given Hagan’s current lead, there are one compelling reason to watch this race. The first, of course, is that we never want assume a race is won before the votes are counted. The second is that this is the only race with a candidate whose concession speech might be better than Rick Santorum’s in 2006.
Ah, memories.
The Election Guide
Introduction
For all of those who have no had a chance (READ: Is not nearly as nerdy) to keep up with the election, here is a quick and dirty guide to the election. First a few ground rules and general things to keep in mind.
Not all polls are created equal
Just because John Zogby has a poll with McCain +1 nationally doesn’t mean that McCain is actually +1. More than likely, it means that John Zogby just loves to shower himself with attention. It is important to analyze the voters models used to generate these polls as well as the questions asked of the responders. Are third party candidates included? Are young voters well represented? Does it account for increased turnout among certain demographics? These are all questions that must be asked of polls before we accept them at face value.
Some polls are greater than others as far as their accuracy. Don’t be shocked if we don’t include the latest numbers for some polls, because quite frankly, few polls are worth the trouble.
Inherent Bias
Both authors of this document fully admit their life-long affiliation with the Democratic Party. We’re both Democrats, but we try our best to keep biases out, though that tends to be difficult at times. I have my soap boxes, Taylor has his too. We’ll try to be objective, but we make no promises.
And if you’re wondering why all the Republican pictures have flags in the background, it’s because it is impossible to find any without. It’s like part of their outfit.
Basic Structure
This document is arranged chronologically, by closing time. If you want to hear about Alaska, I suggest you flip to the back. The quicker a state closes its polls, the sooner they will be covered. Along with the Presidential races, several Senate, House and Governors races will also be covered. Next to name of every state, you’ll see how it voted in 2004 (for whom and by how much) as well as the current projected winner by Fivethirtyeight.com. Under every highlighted race, you’ll find important demographic data, voter stats and nuggets of info as well the occasional piece of commentary and bad joke. It is our supreme wish that you find this document useful.
-Xiao Xi Zhang and Taylor Poro
5:00 PM Central Time
First Polls Close – Eastern Kentucky and Most of Indiana (Bush in 2004)
Indiana (Bush by 23.7%) – McCain +1.5
Indiana has been a surprising swing state so far this election and has been a target of the Obama campaign since the early days of the election cycle. Obama has devoted a large amount of resources to opening 42 field offices in the state, with a great concentration in the largely rural Eastern part.
McCain has largely ignored the state, with good reason as it’s gone Democratic exactly once in the last 15 elections, and has a 14% advantage in Republicans vs. Democrats Identification and has demographic trends which heavily favor the Republicans (large gun ownership rate, large rural population). Current polls have McCain leading, but not by enough to make this race comfortable.
There’s a race worth watching in the Indiana 9th district, in what is probably the most personal race of this election cycle.
Kentucky (Bush by 20%) – McCain +13.6
Proof positive that voter self-identification does not always dictate their vote, Kentucky actually has a democratic advantage in the number of registered voters. Despite this, it will easily go McCain this election cycle.
Some of Kentucky’s polls close at five, while others at six, so all of the results will not be released until six. When all of the polls close, John McCain will be declared the winner easily, as almost every aspect of the Kentucky demographic map favors the Republican Party.
The more interesting aspect of the Kentucky will be the election for US senator. The incumbent, Mitch McConnell is the Republican minority leader and was thought to be in a safe race. In the last few weeks however, nursing home magnate Bruce Lunsford has been closing the gap, and keeping the race with McConnell close. As McConnell is the minority leader, he’ll face especially strong retaliation from an anti-incumbent mood, as well as resistance from voters in an anti-Republican mood. McConnell’s money and the state’s strong republican lean will favor him, as will McCain’s coattails in the state. It also helps McConnell that Lunsford has already lost two statewide primaries, and has somewhat high negatives.
However, despite the fact that Lunsford seems to have topped out at about 44% of the vote, McConnell’s support for the bailout weights heavily against him here. Kentucky has an outside shot at being a wave seat, but the fact that this seat is in endanger at all is indicative of the strength of the Republican brand nation-wide. A loss for McConnell here, or even a strong showing by Lunsford, might jeopardize the seat of Republican Senator Jim Bunnings, who is running for re-election in 2010. Bunnings have neither the popularity or the clout of McConnell and is a serious weak spot for the GOP in 2010.
Trends to Watch:
Turnout!
Both Indiana and Kentucky are interesting states to gauge the strength of the GOP GOTV effort and the amount of new voter turnout for this election. Indiana has traditionally had one of the lowest voting rates of the nation (at around 55%), and a huge push by new voters can push Obama over the top there.
Eastern Kentucky has traditionally been one of the most conservative areas in the nation, and a poor turnout there could mean there’ll be lower turnout in the conservative South. A low conservative turnout could end the race before California closes its polls and have huge impact on several crucial down-ticket races.
Highlighted Matchup:
US House
Indiana 9th
Baron P. Hill (D-Incumbent) vs Mike Sodrel (R)
They say that politics is a game of characters, and if that’s true, then this race definitely takes precedence over all others - including that of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. For the past 6 years, Republican Mike Sodrel and Democrat Baron P. Hill have been busy re-enacting a political version of the Battle of Somme with great financial casualties for both.
In 2002, Sodrel barely lost to Baron P. Hill in his challenge for Hill’s seat, only to beat Hill in 2004. His stay in the House was neither long nor storied as he lost to Hill for the seat 2 years later. Not satisfied with two defeats, Sodrel now expects to challenge him in round 4 of their bout. This year, Hill’s fundraising far outpaces Sodrel’s and he’s expected to have an easier time at re-election. Yet, despite this, there is still significant and quite vicious exchange of words between the two men.
This series of elections between the two men have featured everything - a demanded recount by Hill in 2004, voting machine errors in both 2004 and 2006, Hill walking across the state of Ohio (literally walking) in order to meet with voters, Sodrel funding his own campaign through his personal fortune, a stereotypically rich and conservative Texan millionaire injecting his money into the campaign, visits and fundraisers by both Presidents Clinton and Bush, and more money spent on negative ads that would make Karl Rove blush (or flush with excitement) than any other Indiana district. Really, the battle between these two men has been a microcosm of our last 8 years of politics.
The strength of Sodrel’s showing, more importantly, will be a good indicator for the state of Indiana. If Baron Hill is able to put Sodrel away by double digits, that means good things for Obama.
6:00 PM Central Time
Blue in the Land of Dixie – Georgia, Virginia, South Carolina, Vermont, Rural New Hampshire, Western Kentucky, Rest of Indiana, and Eastern Florida
Georgia (Bush by 17%) – McCain +3.7
Home to one of the most contentious races of the 2002 elections, Georgia has always been an odd duck in the Solid South. With its growing minority population (non-Whites make up 1/3 of the State’s population) and a large base of young voters, a consistent turnout effort could swing the state to the Democratic column for good in the next few elections.
Early polls have been promising in that regard, as the African American turnout during early voting has accounted for 35% of the total votes. That has caused a large lead 55-40 lead for Barack Obama, though he trails in overall polls 47-44. Keep an eye out on both the African-American turnout and the returns from the Atlanta suburbs, as good results in either area would spell trouble for Republicans in 2008 and possibly in the future.
Obama has recently restarted buying air time in Georgia both to take an outside shot at the state’s 13 electoral votes and to help out Democratic US Senate Nominee Jim Martin.
Along with a close presidential race and a hot Senate race, Georgia is also home to two moderately contested house races. Both John Barrow (D-Georgia 13th) and Jim Marshall (D-Georgia 8th) barely survived their Republican gerrymandered districts in 2006. Their races should be easier this year and both races are leaning Democrat right now.
South Carolina (Bush by 17%) – McCain +9.7
South Carolina is another state that SHOULD go straight into McCain’s column upon polls closing. However, high African American turnout could make the state somewhat competitive, and Obama is likely to do better in South Carolina than Kerry did. There are also two interesting house seats which could turn blue, depending on turnout.
In SC-01, a survey USA poll puts Linda Ketner five points behind Henry brown (R). With an African American electorate of 20%, a surge of voters could put Ketner over the top. What’s interesting is that Linda is an openly gay woman, who could actually win a house seat in the Deep South.
Senator (and top McCain surrogate) Lindsey Graham was thought to be somewhat vulnerable during the height of the Republican panic, but that turned out for naught. It might have something to do with the fact that the Democrat’s pool of available candidates is bird-bath shallow here.
Vermont (Kerry by 20%) – Obama +24.6
Vermont will be a gauge on the presidential election, but not a very big one. If McCain is able to keep Obama in the low 50’s then he may be having a very good night. Conversely, if Obama gets 64% of the vote or higher, then this will be a good night for him, as it would be the most a Democrat has won there since Lyndon Baines Johnson.
The gubernatorial race should be more interesting since it’s a three person race, and if none of the candidates gets a majority of the votes it goes to the legislature where the Democrats have a 2/3’s majority. Neither the democratic challenger, Gaye Symington, nor independent activist Anthony Pollina has run very good campaigns though, and the incumbent governor Jim Douglas is likely to be re-elected.
Rural New Hampshire (Kerry by 1%) – Obama +9.8
New Hampshire’s odd election rules means that various parts of the state close their polls at different times. It is a confusing set of election rules that is a part of New Hampshire’s efforts to become the most confusing state in the Union.
Furthermore, New Hampshire is notoriously difficult to predict (READ: the election and primaries are the only things they have going for them and they’ll milk it for all it’s worth). This is both McCain country, and Hillary country. New Hampshire will be the first test of the Palin effect. Palin was brought in to lure Hillary voters away from Obama, specifically older, white women.
Kerry barely won New Hampshire with 50% of the vote. He was able to win by getting and 52% of women, and breaking about even with men. If Palin was able to help with Hillary voters McCain will either break even with Obama on the female vote, or do better than Bush did. If Obama does 5+ points better than Kerry did with women in New Hampshire, this might show that Obama is holding the Hillary supporters, and that Palin is hurting the ticket.
In the Senate, it’s a rematch between Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and senator John Sununu (R-NH). Sununu beat Shaheen last time around, but Democrats blame that on Republicans jamming their phones on Election Day. Since Shaheen entered the race in 2007, Sununu has trailed Shaheen in just about every poll. She should win by at least five points. It’s a toss-up to lean Dem race with incumbent Democrat carol shay porter in a rematch with Republican Jeb Bradley whom she beat in 2006. The polls have it close, but Bradley barely won his primary with 52% of the vote. Seeing how two years ago he was a sitting congressman, that’s not a good sign. This may be a nail bitter, but look for porter to pull it off.
Western Kentucky
Virginia (Bush by 8%) – Obama +5.6
Virginia is going to be one of the most important states of this election. It hasn’t gone democratic since 1964, but Obama has been campaigning heavily there in the last few months, and seems optimistic. This is one of the states where both parties have reason to be optimistic. Democrats have been on the upswing since democrat Mark Warner won the governorship in 2001. Since then, Warner was succeeded democrat Tim Kaine, Democrat Jim Webb won a Senate seat in 2006, unseating George Allen after the maccaca incident, and they’ve won the Virginia Senate.
This is also home to one of the most famous examples of the Bradley effect. African American mayor Douglas Wilder (D-Richmond) ran for governor in 1989, and despite having a healthy lead for most of the race, won by less than a percentage point. It is possible this effect might still be in place, but after almost 20 years, and a rapidly changing electorate, it seems unlikely. Add to that, Obama’s impressive organization, and McCain’s chronic inattention to the state until the last few weeks of the campaign, and you have a possible Obama win.
Virginia has been voting for weeks now, and the early votes have heavily favored Obama. Mark Warner is also running for senate and will probably get more than 60% of the vote against former governor Jim Gilmore. This Senate seat is a sure pickup for the Dems. Democrats also appear likely to win the house seat of retiring Tom Davis. Had McCain focused more on Virginia and maybe spent more, he may be in a different position, but his belief that the state was not competitive will hurt him in the long run.
Western Indiana
Eastern Florida (Bush by 5%) – Obama +1.7
The final polls will close in Florida at 8:00, and, in memory of Tim Russert, it should be noted that this election will ALSO be about FLORIDA, FLORIDA, FLORIDA!!!
Obama has been spending about three million dollars a week in that state for weeks now, and once the financial crisis started, it really started to give him traction. Obama has brought dispatched every heavy hitter in his arsenal to Florida, including both Clintons, the Biden’s, and of course, Al Gore. Florida’s Republican governor Charlie Crist has been less of an asset to McCain than he could have been. He hasn’t been campaigning as much as he could have. He went to Disney World on the day of a McCain rally, didn’t cut an ad for McCain until the last few days of the campaign, and he extended the early voting hours, which is likely to advantage Obama as, polls suggest that Obama leads in early voting by a 60/40 margin. Some say this is because Crist is still angry at the selection of Sarah Palin as the vice-presidential pick.
As a part of a greater trend, Republicans lead in early and absentee voting four years ago, but the Democrats enjoy heavy advantages in both this cycle. Due to the sensitive nature of the state and the lessons of the year 2000, don’t expect results until late in the night, 11 or 12 at the earliest.
As if to truly prove that they’re the most dysfunctional state in the union, Florida also has more than its fair share of close house races to keep track of. The first is Tim Mahoney’s seat in Florida’s 16th district. Two years ago, Democrat Tim Mahoney beat Mark Foley (R-FL) after Foley’s inappropriate, sexual text messages to under aged male pages were revealed. Two years later it was discovered that Mahoney cheated on his wife with a staffer, leading the greater party of America to ask what exactly is wrong with this district. Mahoney will lose his seat in a wave of constituent fury. He could have gone out with more dignity by apologizing and saying that he will stay on the ballot just to avoid the district from having another media circus like two years ago. Instead he denied everything. He’s done.
In better news for the Democrats, Dem Suzanne Kosmas looks poised to upset incumbent Republican Tom Feeny in the Florida 24th District. Feeny has connections with Super Lobbyist Jack Abramoff that have been dogging his campaign for months. Republican Rep Keller in the 8th district is also likely to lose, to Dem attorney Alan Grayson, who had one of the best campaign commercials of the election cycle featuring just Grayson, an airport hanger and a giant briefcase of money.
What to Watch For:
Supermajority
The state of Georgia probably represents the Democrats’ best chance at picking up a 60th seat in the US Senate as Jim Martin’s numbers are the only ones who are still increasing and hasn’t appeared to top out yet. Election rules in Georgia also dictate that if no candidate receives 50% of the vote, a runoff be held so we can be watching this race until mid-December.
In the House, pickups in South Carolina and Florida will be essential if the Democrats want a shot at the Veto-majority of 275. It’s a long-shot, but these seats are essential. They will definitely pick up the Tom Davis seat in Virginia and get a net gain in Florida. A strong showing in these states will establish a good rhythm for the rest of the night.
Highlighted Matchup:
US Senate
Georgia
Saxby Chambliss (R-Incumbent) vs Jim Martin (D)
An unexpectedly close Senate race, first-term Senator Saxby Chambliss finds himself once again embroiled in a close race after narrowly defeating Democratic Incumbent Max Cleland in the Republican wave of 2002. That race was famous for its dirty politics as Chambliss accused Cleland, a triple amputee and veteran of the Vietnam War, of being soft on national security and being unpatriotic. Chambliss himself had gotten deferment for service during Vietnam.
Chambliss faces a virtual unknown in former State Representative Jim Martin whose sole state-wide election experience was a loss in the Lt. Governor race of 2006. So why is Chambliss, a popular Republican Senator in a deeply Republican state losing?
Well, mainly because of the bailout. Georgia conservatives, deeply mistrustful of expanded government spending and deeply hostile to “Wall Street” came out in large numbers in opposition of the bailout. Chambliss’s support of the Bill has not strengthened Martin, per say, but did heavily boost Libertarian candidate Allen Buckley, who is polling as much as 7% of the vote in some areas.
The contrast between these candidates is amazing and makes for some great political drama. Chambliss is the well-known, well-funded Georgia lawyer with the booming voice and the entourage that travels by a giant bus which would, in the words of Politico, “have enough room for the football team and the van.” Martin, meanwhile, is a slight, intellectual man who is more comfortable riding a small 14 seat bus as his vehicle of choice.
With a strong libertarian candidate, a heavy population of minorities and a deeply resentful conservative population, Georgia represent perhaps the best chance for Democrats to pick up seat #60. Look out for the African American turnout in this race, as it is at an uncommonly high rate of35% in early votes. If that number stays above 30%, there’s a good chance Jim Martin gets the requisite 50% vote to avoid a runoff and win a Senate seat.
Reaction to the Debate
This won't be long:
I really thought both sides did well. My thanks to Matt Hittle, who I haven't always been kind or respectful of, both Tims and Morgan for a well-reasoned defense of Republican policy. My thanks to all people who posed questions, even if yours weren't always directly answered. There are some small things that I believe we should continue to address, but there is time for that later. It was a great night, and I had more fun than I ever thought possible.
Non-swing state review:Georgia
With 11 days left until the election, most people are getting rather sick of the bombardment of information about the swing states. Factors not being mentioned are developments in non-swing states that still have important elections. For the next 11 days I will provide information about one state per day. Even if a state isn’t important (or might not be important) in the presidential election doesn’t mean it doesn’t have other important races. Since early voting started in Georgia during late September 900,000 people have voted. That’s almost 30% of the total 2004 Georgia electorate. Such a dramatic up tick in early voting demonstrates just how motivated the populace is about this election. It also means that the lines might be significantly smaller come election day, or there may be a much different electorate than in past elections. This could affect both the senate race and the race for Georgia’s electoral votes. Currently the senate race between incumbent Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) and former state legislator and 2006 lt. governor nominee Jim martin. This race was on the backburner for most of the summer when Chambliss led by double digits. Then something odd happened: it tightened. A few weeks ago, a poll came out showing the race tied. Well, it had to be an outlier right? A poll that gives an idea of where the race is, but not accurate? Right? Wrong. Poll after poll came out showing a close race. The polls ranged anywhere from Chambliss a few points ahead to tied, to Chambliss six or seven points ahead. The latest, by Rasmussen, has it 47-45 in Chambliss’ favor. This is an important race for democrats due to how Chambliss won back in 2002. In 2002 he defeated incumbent democrat Max Cleland by questioning his patriotism. This ad, This race is going to comedown to turnout. Right now, of the 900,000 early voters, about a third of the voters are African American. This is a sharp up tick from the 25% of African Americans who voted in Georgia in 2004. The two questions are going to be, will it stay at this level, or dip back to 2004 levels, and how democratic will they vote? They voted for Kerry by an 88-12 point margin. Should these numbers occur again, or edge higher, it will certainly put Chambliss’ re-election in danger. The other race is the presidential race, which is running on basically the same lines as the senate race: turnout. Kerry won 23% of the white vote in 2004. Seeing as Obama is doing much better than Kerry nationwide, has been advertising in Georgia, has campaigned there, and has similar policies, it should stand to reason that Obama will do better than Kerry in Georgia. Former Georgia Congressman Bob Barr’s presence on the ballot will also be an x-factor, possibly the 2-3 points needed to tilt the race. If the demographics change from 2004 and Obama does better in the white vote by 5-15 points he could very well win. Though that’s extremely unlikely, and if he did it would likely be the electoral votes that put him in the upper 300’s-400 rather than the votes that give him 270. If there’s a landslide, look for Georgia to turn blue for the first time since 92.
1st Debate LIVEBLOG!
Liveblog of the first debates, nominally the "Foreign policy debate"
A Requiem for Thabo Mbeki
A long tribute/discussion of outgoing South African president Thabo Mbeki.
[Read More]House Keeping and Other Things
Hi folks, because Ryan and Chris have both gone on to bigger and better things, I will take over the majority of administrative actions on this Web-blog. As such, we've cleared up the links section a bit.
Added is the best election projection site on the web, Fivethirtyeight.com, ran by Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus fame.
I'm still figuring things out, so please be patient with me as I experiment with the various templates that Apache Roller has to offer. But meanwhile, you can expect numerous posts by numerous informative and sometimes controversial posts by Emily, myself, and many other voices who represent the USD Dems.
Thanks, and have a nice semester.
Xiao Xi Zhang
To Matt Hittle and the College Republicans
Oh Matt,
My post was not an attack on neither you nor any of the College Republicans... the purpose of the post was to get your attention (it seems I have). I have asked you "respectfully" to consider an additional, less formal debate on more than one occasion ... the response I got is that more than one debate is too much; I disagree and so made it clear in my post.
It would be quite apparent to anyone who attended last semesters debate, that the USD Democrats are most polite and quite capable of using "appropriate rhetoric.” If I remember correctly it was the Republican side of the stage that threw out a few quick jokes, political one liners, during the debate last February… if the republican groups want to make snide jokes about our party during a debate, let's have a debate that is set up so we can defend ourselves.
We aren’t asking the College Republicans to get in a “screaming match” we just want to have a debate about what actually matters: what voting for either John McCain or Barack Obama means. We don’t want to get in front of students and make jokes or insult any of the candidates… we do want to make sure people know what voting for either ticket means. I want students to know that by voting for Barack Obama they will be voting for a candidate with strong opinions on, and structured plans for, education, health care, foreign policy, energy etc. I am sure that the Republicans want students voting for McCain because of his positions as well. What I mean is that, it should have been obvious that a debate “about candidates” would be a debate on the candidate’s position on the “issues.”
What the PSL has set up as a debate for the dems and repubs in the past had nothing to do with campaigns or candidates, rather the debate was set up to inform students on the general positions of the two parties. The PSL debates are a wonderful way to inform students about general positions, but during this incredibly important election, we want to discuss more than a few general positions… we want to make sure students know what each candidate is about!
As far as the facebook reference… I mean no offense. BUT if you are willing to make a statement about a candidate on your facebook profile, you must have enough opinions about him to be able to have a respectful debate. I hope you don’t have demeaning pictures posted with nothing to back up the claims they make… you must think Obama’s foreign policy stances are weak, or his education plan is lacking… or something, right? Well… that’s what we want to talk about.
If you want to call it fight… okay, lets fight! We are smart, articulate, and informed people… we can fight and keep it respectful. Students like to see both parties debate about candidates, because in reality that’s what is going to matter: who they vote for this November.
SO… matt… lets take a look at some of the rhetoric in your post and see how “insulting” it is compared the language I used:
you say “In their latest post, the USD Democrats whined”
you say “Look through the silly hyperbole and ad hominem”
you say “Emily Van Gerpen launched an ad hominem attack”
and theres more… but that’s a good enough idea…
Now:
I say: This year's presidential campaign has been hugely popular among younger voters... something that matters quite a lot to the College Democrats and College Republicans.
I say: the College Republicans think more than one is "overkill." (Your direct opinion… )
I say: Certainly the College Republicans have members with much to say in support of Senator John McCain and Governor Sarah Palin. ( I stress your groups dedication to your candidates… so insulting)
I say: We hope the College Republicans will consider the idea of an additional, less formal debate. ( that seems like I respectfully asked…)
With that said, I do hope the College Republicans will consider having more than one debate. A secondary and "less formal" debate that will still have rules would be a great way to continue our efforts to work together this year to encourage political activism.
Emily
When debating issues became overkill.
This year's presidential campaign has been hugely popular among younger voters... something that matters quite a lot to the College Democrats and College Republicans. Its a great time to get more students involved in the political process. The USD Democrats are working hard to get many new members this year, but we don't want merely to have a large group, we want to do things that will make a difference in this campaign! Voter registration drives, issue campaigns, concerts, and debates... these are just a few of the things the dems group is working on this semester to increase political awareness and encourage activism on campus.
One of the best ways to get kids our age intersted in politics is for them hear the parties' stances on specific issue and the current candidates (i.e. witnessing the annual dems vs. repubs debate). The Volante and the PSL are both interested in putting on debates this year... but the College Republicans think more than one is "overkill." Bummer... the two political organizations on campus are full of students more than willing to debate the credentials of their respective presidential nominee and their respective platforms... so why not have as many debates for which there is demand?
What better to draw attention to the organizations than to have a "you tube" style debate on the candidates? Certainly the College Republicans have members with much to say in support of Senator John McCain and Governor Sarah Palin... so why not say it in front of the College Democrats? If members are consistently willing to "voice: their opinions about Democratic Candidates by using smear pictures as Facebook profile pics... then why not get in front of the student body and defend such opinions?
We hope the College Republicans will consider the idea of an additional, less formal debate. We are ready and waiting for the opportunity to advocate our party's candidates and platform... All Day.
polls closed
Polls are closed with Hillary leading, but the state too close to call. The exit polls shows them split amongst men, but her running away with women, but the exit polls have screwed me in the past, so we’ll have to see. Votes have started coming in from Sioux falls, showing Hillary with a slight lead, but only 0% have reported (…). If she wins Sioux Falls, she’ll win, there wise it could go into the night. Of course it doesn’t matter BECAUSE OBAMA IS THE NOMINEE! Hillary will be addressing her supporters soon in an amazing denial fest, so lets wait and watch that.
primary night
Hey there, I know it’s summer, and I’m probably just writing to myself here, but it’s the night of the Montana and more importantly, south Dakota primaries, so how could I not write something about tonight’s activities. For those who don’t know me, I’m Taylor Poro, and I also blog over at Ponder Point. More importantly, I am a student of USD (obviously) and a former student of University of Montana: Missoula (go Griz!) and I have a basic idea of what could happen tonight. First with Montana. For Obama, he’s going to need to bring up big margins in Missoula county, as well as Helena and billings, the population centers. Senator Clinton will need to rack up HUGE margins in the rural parts of the state. There are several similarities between this race, and the primary between former Montana auditor John Morrison and former state senate president (and current senator) Jon tester. In 2006 it was a primary battle between the two, and Morrison was considered the more moderate, establishment candidate, whereas tester was the upstart populist. Despite being neck and neck in the polls for most of the campaign, tester won a resounding victory in the primary due to huge Missoula margins. There are differences of course too. The most important one being that Morrison had been struggling with accusations of infidelity. Despite being considered the weaker candidate in the general election, Jon tester defeated Morrison 61-35 and defeated corrupt republican incumbent Conrad “Connie” burns (who, according to the Kaimin, the UM newspaper, the students of UM trusted less than Mr. Burns of the Simpsons) by a few thousand votes. I suspect Obama will win with about 55% of the vote. South Dakota will be a different story. It is a closed primary, in a more conservative state, with more rural areas. Each candidate has their edge. Obama has institutional support, with senator Daschle, Johnson, and rep Herseth Sandlin all supporting Obama. He will also most likely win the population centers of clay county, possibly union county, and the city of Sioux falls. It will be the margins that matter. Clinton can win by running up huge margins in rural areas, the same as Montana. Over the past few days, both senators Obama and Clinton have been criss-crossing the state as well as the former president Clinton and their daughter. Obama has been to Aberdeen and Mitchell, whereas president Clinton was recently in vermillion. A recent poll shows that Clinton is winning with 2/3’s of the vote, but the pollster ARG is ranked 26th worst out of the 41 pollster of this season. Neither campaign believes these numbers, so we shall see. Another interesting event will be if Hyperion passes the vote in union county and by how much if it does. A surge of young voters for Obama could doom it, but with school out, I doubt it, sadly. Either way it appears that Obama, only six delegates away from the nomination will be declaring victory tonight, while Hillary will turn up the Zeppelin and dethklok and prey it shouts out the fat lady singing. I’ll be writing more tonight, see ya then
"In August I told you I was back, today I tell you that I am here to stay."
College Dems attended McGovern Day in Sioux Falls and had the pleasure of hearing Sen. Tim Johnson give an amazing speech that showcased his amazing recovery from emergency brain surgery resulting from bleeding in the brain.
[Read More]The Mess in Iraq (psst...the surge isn't working)
A few thoughts on the War In Iraq at the current moment.
[Read More]Countdown to May: End of the World?
Read more if you want to find out how the world may end this spring...
[Read More]