Don't get me wrong-- last night was a good night for Hillary. But its just that-- a night. A snapshot in the bigger context of the primary. How is she really standing? In order to answer this question we'll have to look at the past, present and future.

One question burns in my mind: what exactly is Clinton's path to the nomination? After last night she is behind by about 140 pledged ("elected") delegates, and about 90 delegates total when you factor in her slight advantage among super delegates. That doesn't seem like a large lead for Obama, but there are only about 500 pledged delegates left. Clinton will need to win by large margins in the remainging contests-- about 70/30-- in order to pass Obama in pledged delegates. Even in her "big win" in Ohio last night she only won by about 10 points. It is VERY unlikely that she will win by 70/30 margins-- she will most likely come out of the primary contest at least 100 pledged delegates behind Obama.

So how does she win the nomination then? She does have a path, but it is very narrow and potentially destructive. I'd give Obama about a 70% chance of winning the nomination right now. Here are the ways Clinton can win despite her pledged delegate defecit:

1. Count Michigan and Florida. While Obama would still be in the lead, it would be a much smaller lead if Clinton seats delegates from the controversial Michigan and Florida primaries where she won handily in non-contested, non-official primaries (in Michigan Obama wasn't even on the ballot). If these delegates were seated for Clinton, it would rip the party in half. I'm not even sure I could vote for her if she won that way.

Alternatively, there is talk of  holding re-votes in those two contests. This would be the most fair since it would give citizens of those two states a way for their votes to matter and allow each candidate to campaign and would not be viewed contentiously by Obama supporters. Clinton would have a couple of advantages. For one, she may get some "good will" votes from voters who want to reward her for trying to get the Michigan and Florida primaries to count. Secondly, she seems to be doing strong in big states with big latino and blue-collar worker populations. If there was a re-vote, it is still unlikely she would close the gap considerably, but it would inch her closer to the finish line.

2. She needs a majority of the super delegates. Let's assume a best-case scenario for Clinton when the convention comes around. She is probably about 50 delegates behind Obama. Out of the 800 super delegates, she'll need 425 to Obama's 375 in this scenario. In a more realistic scenario, Clinton will be 100 or 150 delegates behind which will require a 450-350 or 475-325 super delegates respectively. She'll need a very convincing argument to have the super delegates overturn the will of the people, as expressed by the pledged (elected) delegates.

3. She needs momentum. The only way that #1 and #2 happens is if she can claim some big momentum. That is, the results of Florida and Michigan are irrelevant if Obama holds his ground or gains on her and the super delegates aren't going to back someone who keeps losing matches. Momentum will also net her more delegates by giving her more victories and bigger margins.

The downside to the momentum, and why its potentially destructive, is when we talk about how she acheives it. The NAFTA controversy and 3AM phone call ad are both credited with her swing in momentum yesterday. In order to maintain her momentum, will she continue to bludgeon Obama by lobbing attacks at home like she has been? Even with momentum, there is no guarantee that #1 and #2 will happen to give her the win. So she might just beat up on Obama and lose anyway, leaving us with a battered Obama.

So should Clinton drop out? The potential downsides to her "path to vicotry" are (1) winning by overturning the ordained rules in Florida and Michigan, (2) winning by overturning the will of the people (as expressed by elected delegates) with super delegates, and (3) beating up on Obama who may go on to be the nominee anyway. My opinion is that she has every right to stay in under certain circumstances and that it will actually be to the benefit of the party.

First of all, the super delegates won't overturn the the election unless its already very close and/or Clinton has shown very clear momentum in her favor as expressed by national poll numbers and potential victories leading up to the nomination. Under those circumstances, granted some of the flaws of the primary system, the supers have every right to consider Clinton's case.

Second of all, under no circumstance should she try to seat Florida and Michigans delegation as-is. That would be completely unfair. A re-vote, or an unseated delegation, is the only fair option. This is do to (1) people who stayed home in that state since the results wouldn't count, (2) the DNC rules that were agreed upon before those primaries, (3) Obama's name wasn't on the Michigan ballot and (4) Obama, the lesser known candidate with less name recognition, couldn't campaign in those states.

Third of all, to an extent it is good that Hillary is attacking Obama. It will get him and his team ready for prime time against the GOP which will hold nothing against him. If he comes out of this primary alive, after being beaten up, all the better. Plus all of John McCain's arguments will be "old news" The only thing that worries me is Hillary swiftboating Obama-- lending credibility to some unsubstantiated argument against him.

So bring it on. I think an extended primary fight is a good thing. As I blogged about last night, John Kerry netted 2.8 million votes in Texas. Almost 3.5 million voted in the primary this year. With this kind of activism and excitement, brought to all 50 states, we will have a fresh, organized, and energetic Democratic party that will pay off huge for us this year and in elections to come.