Election guide Part 2
6:30 PM Central Time
THE Ohio Poll Closes – Ohio, North Carolina, West Virginia
North Carolina (Bush by 12%) – Obama +1
North Carolina will be crucial this time around. Obama currently leads by a thin margin against McCain, but the very fact that he’s competitive speaks volumes. This race won’t be called until far into the night, but Obama could pull off an upset. McCain is working with little room for error, and he cannot be the first republican since Gerald Ford to lose North Carolina. North Carolina enjoys a heavily active minority and a good number of unions, so Obama has a demographic advantage to balance out the disproportionate number of Republicans in the state. Keep an eye out for the length of lines in this state, though current governor (and possible future Senate candidate) Mike Easley (D) has been better than most about keeping voting easy and well-supplied.
There’s a rematch house race in the North Carolina 8th district between Republican rep Robin Hayes and Democratic social studies teacher Larry Kissel. Kissel lost by less than 400 votes last time around, and could likely win this year. The district has had some pretty heavy turnout so far favoring Kissel.
In the gubernatorial race, democratic Lt. Governor Bev Purdue is in a tossup election with republican Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory. North Carolina hasn’t elected a republican since 1988, but this could be their year.
Purdue leads heavily (as all North Carolina democrats do) in early voting, and current Democratic governor Mike Easley is quite popular. She has a slim lead in overall polls, but is running a very competent campaign.
Ohio (Bush by 2%) – Obama +3.4
The bellwether of 2004 and the home of a crucial 20 electoral votes, Democrats have been on an upswing here of late, electing a now uber-popular democratic governor (Ted Strickland), moderately popular democratic senator (Sherrod Brown) and a new Democratic house member in 2006.
Democrats look to pick up between 1-3 seats this year, possibly more depending on of it’s a wave or not. McCain has been focusing a lot of time in this state, and stands a good chance. No republican has won the presidency without Ohio. It’s also a state Obama lost in the primary. Still, the economy has the landscape favoring the democrats, and Ohio republicans are still covered in the stench of former governor Bob Taft, who left office with a 19% approval rating. Obama is currently leading and pulling away according to all poll data, but McCain is still well within striking distance. When discussing Ohio, one must also remember the incidences of long lines in heavy urban areas in 2004. If the votes in Columbus and Cleveland (and to a lesser degree, Cincinnati) are suppressed by long lines, McCain definitely has a better chance to snatch victory.
What McCain has to fight here, however, is the heavy demographic tilt against him. Ohio has a high manufacturing base, a high number of union members, and high levels of unemployment – all of which factors against McCain’s bid for a late comeback. This added with the growing number of minorities and young people in the state means that we should expect this one to be decided earlier than it was in 2004.
There are three house elections in Ohio were the Republicans are liable to lose a seat, or at least face stiff re-election campaigns. Steven Chabot will look to survive another close race after barely edging through in 2006. Both Ohio 15th and 16th will have new representatives as long-time Republicans Deborah Pryce and Ralph Regula rode off into the sunset during their party’s toughest cycle in a generation. The only Democratic congressman at risk in Ohio is Zack Space, who currently holds a small advantage over his Republican rival Ken Dailey.
West Virginia (Bush by 13%) – McCain +9.8
Three states have polls that close at 6:30, two important, the other, not so much. West Virginia does not have any competitive house races, senate race, or a competitive governor’s race. The incumbents will all get re-elected. For the presidential race, this will be an early warning sign of a wave. If Obama wins, or comes very close, it’s likely to be a wave, otherwise McCain should win comfortably.
The only thing to watch here is whether US Senator Jay Rockafeller will win by the highest margins in the country. He’s close, but he’s getting a heavy challenge from Mark Warner (Virginia) and Dick Durbin (Illinois).
What to Watch for:
It’s Freakin Ohio
Really, I’m not lying, it’s freaking Ohio. Ohio politics don’t change, the current cast is just replaced by a new one. Look for the same signs during this election as every other Ohio election - monitor turnout, monitor suppression, and expect at least one member of the Congressional delegation to murder the English language and all its children during their acceptance speech. Mary Jo Kilroy, I’m looking at you.
Highlighted Matchup:
US Senate
North Carolina
Elizabeth Dole (R-Incumbent) vs Kay Hagan (D)
For most of 2007 Dole polled under 50% for re-election, and since then, state senator Kay Hagan as been running a strong campaign. Hagan has currently held steady to a lead that hovers around 5% of the vote. For a state where the Democrats control the mechanisms of the election and in an election where the Republican brand is beyond damaged, that’s a pretty big lead to make up this late.
This campaign has been especially dirty, with rampant accusations of incompetency and corruption from both sides. Dole has even had to put out ads questioning Hagan’s faith because she received money from an atheist political action group. Hagan has responded with a lawsuit for libel, and it has become readily apparent that there is little love and even less respect between the two candidates. For the past few weeks, Dole has been in complete desperation mode. If preliminary polling data is to believed, she has every right to be as Hagan has outpolled Dole 58-40 in early voting a number that is much higher than Democrats historically and even higher than Obama’s early voting numbers.
Given Hagan’s current lead, there are one compelling reason to watch this race. The first, of course, is that we never want assume a race is won before the votes are counted. The second is that this is the only race with a candidate whose concession speech might be better than Rick Santorum’s in 2006.
Ah, memories.