7:30 PM Central Time

Snack Break

Arkansas (Bush by 9%) – McCain +11.1

For some god awful reason, Arkansas closes its polls at 7:30 while the nation is taking a break between the polls closing in the Mississippi River Valley region and the Midwest region.

There is no race that is close here, not even the Clintons could sway Arkansas to vote for Obama. To make matters even more boring, the ENTIRE congressional delegation is running unopposed. Yeah, way to give an effort guys. Mark Pryor (D) is possibly the luckiest Senator alive.

 

 

8:00 PM Central Time

Stat-padding - Obama’s Search for a Landslide

This is where the race gets interesting, with a bevy of red states expected to go blue and a bevy of swing states expected to become strongly Democratic. There are also quite a few Senate races and house races which can become Dems pickups. This is the most important set of polls for this part of the election if the goal is to enter the White House with a clear mandate.

New York(Kerry by 19%) – Obama +25.4

New York will be the big prize at eight for a number of reasons.  The first is a look at the exit polls and the margins.  This is a key state to see if Hillary voters are showing any residual anger towards Obama.  If Obama does as well as Kerry and Gore or better, he’s in good shape, otherwise he might be having trouble with Hillary voters. 

There are also a bunch of house races that are close, and look like good pickups for the democrats.  In the 26^th district, Alison Kryzan won a surprising primary victory against two better known opponents, putting the seat of retiring Republican Tom Reynolds into the Republican’s category. In the 29^th district, Randy Kohl is in trouble for saying that Democrats want Americans to suffer for personal gain. He wasn’t running much of a campaign anyway. It’s the most republican district in New York though, so he could pull off an upset.

The 13^th district of New York is so odd it needs its own paragraph. This became a race when the incumbent, Vito Fossella (R-NY) got caught drunk driving. It was later revealed he was racing back to see his SECRET SECOND FAMILY. Then he withdrew his name from nomination, and chose Frank Powers.  Power’s anti-gay rhetoric angered his son so much, that Frank Powers JR. announced he would seek the nomination of the libertarian party to run against him. JR. failed, and announced he would seek the anarchist’s party nomination. The anarchist’s party assembled long enough to tell him that organized anarchists is an oxymoron, then disbanded. 

Then, sadly, frank powers SR. died. Republicans scrambled, and brought in Robert Straniere as their candidate. The only problem is that he’s not very well liked within the party. The Democrats meanwhile chose city councilman Mike McMahon. This seat isn’t notable for being close, McMahon will win, but rather, is notable because it’s the most likely to become an episode of law and order. Dun-duhn.

 

Rhode Island (Kerry by 21%) – Obama +24.5

Hey, you’re reading this! Why? Rhode Island has already voted for Obama.

 

Minnesota (Kerry by 3%) – Obama +10.1

The land of 10,000 lakes, Minnesota has been one of the most storied states of this election. Not only did it host the Republican National Convention, which was cut short because of Hurricane Gustav, but it also featured three of the toughest races this election cycle.

In recent years, Minnesota has gone from a tossup state to a state that is reliably Democrat, even if the elections are a bit close at times. This makes sense considering all the demographics of the state. Minnesota is home to one of the most well-educated and active (78% turnout rate) electorates in the country. The Democratic Party (known as the DFL) is also extremely well-organized, and the party always have a deep bench of Democratic candidates to choose from for every election. The presidential race has been all but decided here, but the interesting scenario is developing in the Congressional races.

Minnesota feature two districts in which Republican incumbents are fighting for their political lives. The heavily conservative 6^th District is the site of an unexpectedly close race between Freshman Congresswoman Michelle Bachman and her DFL opponent Elwyn Tinklenberg after Bachman channeled her inner Joe McCarthy on national TV. The Republicans have pulled party funding from this race, so Tinklenberg might very well have lucked his way into the US House.

The other toss up district features a set two very good candidates against each other in an effort to replace retiring moderate Republican Jim Ramstad. The fight is between polished Republican state Representative Erik Paulsen against 30 year old lawyer and Iraq war veteran Ashwin Madia. If either of these candidates win, they can heavily boost their stock in their respective parties. This race is worth watching for future political implications.

Of course, there’s a Senate race too, that will be addressed in detail later.

 

Wisconsin (Kerry by 1%) – Obama +11.5

A more moderate version of Minnesota, Wisconsin narrowly went for Kerry (by less than .5%) in 04 and went narrowly for Gore in 2000. This year, though, there will be nothing narrow about Barack Obama’s victory here. Wisconsin has become progressively more Democrat as the labor unions grow here and as unemployment rises. Expect this one to be called early.

And because we’re obligated by contract – Russ Feingold

 

Western South Dakota

 

Louisiana(Bush by 15%) – McCain +9.9

One of the most corrupt political systems in the Union, Louisiana was thought to be the first of the Gulf States that might swing Democratic as Northern Louisiana’s minority population continues to grow in conjunction with the progressive expansion of Democratic South Louisiana – leaving only the heavily Republican districts between Baton Rouge and Monroe as an obstacle to Democratic rule.

Unfortunately, the federal government failed the people of Louisiana and the voter base in New Orleans was forever shattered by Katrina. It will take awhile for Louisiana to recover its former purple tone, but there are factors that suggest it could still turn blue in the future. Mainly, Louisiana is a very young state and still have a significant minority population that is still growing, especially in conservative North Louisiana. Still, for the purposes of this race, nothing to see here folks. McCain will win, probably by double digits.

Still, despite the changing of its electorate, Louisiana will still retain its heavily Incumbent-favoring election system. Senator Mary Landrieu (D) will retain her seat easily, as will most of Louisiana’s representatives. The lone exceptions are Dan Cazayoux (D-Incumbent) in the heavily conservative Baton Rouge region (LA-6), who won a special election by the skin of his teeth and will have to fight off another strong challenge from Republican Bill Cassidy and Independent Michael Jackson. Jackson will have an impact on this race as he is the only African-American candidate in a district that is 33% African-American.

The Democrats might pick up another house seat in the moderate 4^th District located in Shreveport (North Louisiana), but that election won’t be held until December 9^th.

 

Arizona (Bush by 11%) – McCain +4.9

There is, however some drama building in Arizona. This would seem unlikely due to it being McCain’s home state, but he is the maverick, and nothing is more maverick than losing your own state.

There are two house seats, one, a republican seat that leans Dem, and the other a Republican seat that’s a tossup. Normally, as this is the Republican nominee’s home state, his good performance would bring them across the finish line, but unfortunately for them, Kohn McCain isn’t doing very well in his home state.  Recent polls have shown him within the margin of error against Obama, whereas Obama is winning his home state by large margins and will have large coattails for Democrats in Illinois.

If Arizona was a Democratic state (like Tennessee in 2000), McCain’s fight here would be understandable but Arizona has a long legacy of Republican strength. While not a strong Republican state, it is lean Republican, to likely Republican and Bush carried the state by double digits in 2004. Yet McCain hasn’t done so well there. While he’s always won election fairly easily for senate, as shown in February, Arizonians don’t like the idea of McCain for president. 

While every other nominee won their home state with a minimum of high 50% of the vote, McCain failed to get a majority of votes in the primary. He won the Arizona primary with 49% of the vote. At this point, it is a very realistic possibility that should he run for Senate re-election in 2010, McCain would not win against popular Democratic governor Janet Napolitano.

The seat in the 1^st district will likely go Republican, and in the 3^rd district, if McCain can get at least 55% of the vote statewide, incumbent Republican John Shadegg will probably win. Otherwise Democrat Bob Lord could very well win.

 

 

New Mexico (Bush by 1%) – Obama +9.7

A state that is trending heavily Democratic, New Mexico is a state that might elect a complete ticket of Democrats in 2008. Not only is the state now trending largely for Obama, the retirement of Pete Domenici from the US Senate means that the first of two Fighting Udalls^TM will win a Senate seat here. New Mexico has a heavily Hispanic, heavily youthful population with no particular attachment to the Republican party. Unless the Obama Presidency is catastrophic, we might well see this State stay blue much like Minnesota has done, in future cycles.

The Republicans in New Mexico also shot themselves in the foot in the State as both Representatives Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce attempted to get the Republican nomination for the Senate. The primary was one of the bloodiest ones in years, resulting in a nose-dive of approval ratings for both candidates before Pearce finally won the nomination. The result is two House seats in the 1^st and 2^nd that are leaning Democrat at the moment and a not-very-close Senate race in which Tom Udall has commanded a double digit lead for a few months now.

 

Colorado (Bush by 5%) – Obama +6.6

Where the Democratic surge in New Mexico is powered by an ever-growing Hispanic electorate, the Democratic surge in Colorado is driven by two groups – the well-educated voters and the young voter. Colorado, a heavily conservationist state, has been getting progressively more purple in the past few elections. In 2004, Democrat Ken Salazar won a Senate seat here against Pete Coors (of Coors brewing fame), and another Democratic Senator will join him in the form of Mark Udall, a proud member of the Fighting Udalls^TM.

In the Colorado 4^th District, well-known hater of homosexuals Marilyn Musgrave has all but lost her House seat already, as the Republican National Committee has given her seat up for dead by pulling funding more than a month ago. The only thing that would make this sweeter is if her opponent happened to be homosexual. The Democratic candidate here is Betsy Markey, who like her former boss Ken Salazar, will attract a heavy Republican/Independent following in a state where Republicans outnumber Democrats by 9 points.

 

Wyoming (Bush by 40%) – McCain +25.2

A state Bush won by 40% will not become competitive in one election cycle. In Wyoming, there’s a close house race between Democrat Gary Trauner and former state treasurer Republican Cynthia Lummis.  Trauner nearly won this race two years ago, but that was against a very flawed incumbent, known for making stupid remarks.  Lummis doesn’t have that problem, and recent polling shows Lummis getting the undecided voters.  She will most likely win. 

 

North Dakota

 

Nebraska (Bush by 33%) – McCain +14.5

In Nebraska, the only thing to see is the 2^nd congressional district.  Nebraska gives splits it’s electoral votes by district, giving 2 to the winner of the state, and one electoral vote per district.  Obama has been making a vain play for that lone vote the same way McCain is trying to win one of Maine’s electoral votes.

It’s never happened before, and most likely won’t happen now either. Although he won’t win the race to replace Senator Chuck Hagel (R), keep an eye out on Scott Kleeb – a young Democrat rancher and educator who has done well in a consistently conservative district in Western Nebraska.

 

What to Watch for

Wave Effect

The first few states covered here will go for Obama easily. The trick is seeing how much Obama wins states like Minnesota and Wisconson, and to a lesser extent, Colorado and New Mexico, by. A strong showing in states like Colorado and New Mexico could signal strengthening ties between the Democrats and the Hispanic community, something that will have a large impact not only in the West, but in the Southwest as well.

If Obama wants a landslide, he’ll have to take Colorado and New Mexico by large margins.

 

Highlighted Matchup:

US Senate

Minnesota

Norm Coleman (R-Incumbent)    vs     Al Franken (D)        vs        Dean Barkley (I)

                                    

The race certainly has its share of characters with Norm Coleman being the former Democratic mayor of St. Paul now running as a Republican Incumbent and Franken being a comedian best known for his books attacking conservative talk radio and the Fox News Channel.

Coleman is the most well-known of the 2002 Republican Senate wave that has now largely been turned back (as John Sununu is losing in New Hampshire, Saxby Chambliss is fighting for his life in Georgia and Jim Talent has already been unseated by Claire McCaskill), but his victory came largely because of the poor handling of the remembrance (it was not a funeral) ceremony of the Senator Paul Wellstone – who lost his life in a plane crash while campaigning for re-election against Coleman. Still, the DFL can’t seem to avoid shooting themselves in the foot as their nomination of Franken has come back to haunt them as Coleman and the Republicans have been using his well-known comedic history to accuse him of being everything from being anti-Semitic (Franken has a Jewish upbringing) to being fraudulent with his taxes (Franken actually paid more than he needed to).

Complicating matters still is the wide support for independent Dean Barkley, who is currently polling at about 18% of the vote. If early voting numbers are to believed, that support has not and will not collapse as Barkley is currently pulling 22% of early voters. Seeing as more than half of those voters who support Barkley are pro-choice Democrats, the collapse of his candidacy might be what tips the race. If Barkley’s support come polling day goes near 10%, Franken will win. If it is around 20%, Coleman will probably retain his seat.

Complicating matters still is the simple fact that polls are all over the place. Survey USA, PPP, Rasmussen, and the Star-Tribune take turns in showing one candidate with the lead, sometime swinging by as much as 10 points. The last poll taken before 11/4 by Star-Tribune shows Franken up by 4, while Survey USA’s poll from the same day shows Coleman up by 5. No one has any idea how this race will turn out.