Home Stretch – Iowa, Idaho, Utah, Nevada and Montana

G.W. Bush swept these states on his way to the presidency in 2004, but Barack Obama and Howard Dean’s 50 states strategy has paid heavy dividends in three of the 5 states. These states will be a continuation of Barack Obama’s wave.

Iowa (Bush by 1%) – Obama +11.7

Bush narrowly won this state in 2004 and John McCain nonsensically and publically came out against ethanol in the early days of the campaign. If you’re going to sell out the rest of your beliefs, why is ethanol such a sticking point?

Regardless, McCain’s bad decision has cost him Iowa’s electoral votes. Iowa has a 36-34-30 split of Republicans-Democrats-Independents, so this will always be a pretty moderate state. Yet, this year, the weakness of the GOP Ticket is readily apparent as for the first time in three election cycles, the Republicans will not muster a challenge against long-time Democratic Senator Tom Harkin. Likewise, the Republicans stand to lose Tom Latham’s long-embattled house seat in the Iowa 4^th District, but Latham has pulled steadily ahead as of late. This is the Bush state that is most assuredly going to go to Obama this cycle.

Idaho (Bush by 39%) – McCain +20.6

Despite their football fields being blue, the fields (potato patches?) of Idaho will always be red.

Utah (Bush by 46%) – McCain +25.9

If John McCain were to suddenly suffer an illness and replaced his candidacy with a card-board cut out of Osama Bin Laden French kissing Sarah Palin, Obama would win this election 532-6. The 6 would come from Utah and Western Nebraska.

Nevada (Bush by 3%) – Obama +4.9

What special about Nevada isn’t that two of its republican house seats are tossups, or that it’s a swing state on the presidential level. What’s special is that it has increased its number of registered voters by 30% in the last four years. This is a whole new electorate from the last presidential election and worth keeping an eye on. In the 2^nd district, republican rep Heller is in a close race with democrat Jill Derby and in the 3rd district republican Jon porter is in a tossup with 2006 gubernatorial nominee Dina Titus.  Tossups both ways.  As for the presidential level, lean Obama. 

The strong and growing stronger union presence in Nevada is also noteworthy – this will show up in the Las Vegas and Reno areas.

Montana (Bush by 20%) – McCain +.02

Obama may very well win Montana, though it will be close. No Democrat for president has won Montana with a majority of the votes since Johnson in 1964. There are a number of factors to look at.  For one, Obama has campaigned there heavily, advertising in the cheap market, and making appearances. Obama also won very big during the primary. Democrats have also been doing a lot better there of late, winning the Governor’s race in 2004 (Brian Schweitzer), and a Senate seat in 2006 (Jon Tester) as well as an easy re-election for Democrat Max Baucus in 2008.

The polls have shown Obama and McCain very close, so it’ll probably go down to the wire.  A factor hurting McCain is the fact that Ron Paul is on the ballot in Montana. Paul will likely take votes away from both nominees, but more from McCain than Obama. Two counties to watch are Missoula County, (home to U Montana Missoula, GO GRIZ!) and Park County. Park is the bellwether; it goes for the winner every time.  In Missoula, Obama needs to get about two thirds of the vote to have a chance. If Obama leads in the beginning it’s a good sign for him. Missoula County will come in first, then areas more beneficial to McCain. If McCain starts with a lead he will most likely keep it throughout the night.

What’s interesting is how the nomination of the Republican candidate for senate, and Democratic candidate for the house seat were such epic fails. Republicans tried to get reprehensive Denny Rehburg to run, but he declined. Then they settled for state rep Lange. He ran a good primary campaign, and then primary night happened. He lost in a freak upset to Bob Kelleher. Kelleher is a perennial candidate who has never won a nomination until now. He has run as a member of the green party, Democratic Party, and Republican Party. He advocated changing the political system to a parliamentary one. For the house, the democrats nominated John Driscoll. His plan to win is to backpack through the mountains, and ride Obama’s coattails.

Highlighted Matchup:

US House

Idaho 1^st

Bill Sali (R-Incumbent)            vs              Walt Minnick (D)

Republican Bill Sali won this race two years ago, but his problem is that, well, he’s a jerk.  He’s the kind of arrogant and ignorant person who shouldn’t get into politics, but somehow managed to sneak through. This has not made Sali popular with anyone in the entire state of Idaho, as shown by the sample of quotes given below: 

"That idiot is just an absolute idiot"

- Republican Idaho House Speaker Bruce Newcomb

"I would not and do not and cannot endorse a liar for Congress"

- Republican Canyon County Commissioner Robert Vasquez (to Sali)

"If you want to debate this, I'll put the House at ease and we can go back into my office and I'll throw you out the window."

- U.S. Rep. Mike Simpson, R-Idaho, as a member of the Idaho House

"The third floor wasn't high enough. You should have taken him up to the fourth floor."

- Simpson's fellow Idaho House members, in response to the above quote

"Bruce has been a great speaker of the House," Otter said. "And as he told me, he learned everything that he knows from Mike Simpson. And that is why every time he has a bad day, he goes and beats the hell out of Bill Sali."

- Idaho's Republican Governor Butch Otter, in reference to Speaker Newcomb

Walt Minnick is a well-funded, well-tempered conservative Democrat running mainly on a platform of change and populism, as well as the largely evident fact that he is not Bill Sali. Bill Sali’s current campaign has consisted of him personally heckling Walt Minnick during a campaign stop. Not a surrogate, not a staffer, but Bill Sali personally went out of his way to heckle Minnick. Stay classy, Bill.

10:00 PM Central Time

OBAMA NATION! – California, Washington, Oregon, Hawai’i

This final wave of continental states and Hawai’i will go heavily towards Obama. There is really no state in question here, but some close down-ticket races remain.

California (Kerry by 9%) – Obama +20.6

Despite its heavily liberal reputation, California is well-segregated into a very liberal coast and a moderate-staunchly conservative interior. For a bastion of liberalism, it’s not that well educated, it doesn’t feature a lot of unemployment, and the State government has been surprisingly incompetent in the past few years.

California also closes at 10. California will go heavily to Obama, but because the districts are chopped up into hyper-partisan fiefdoms, only one congressman is in trouble.

In the republican leaning 4^th congressional district, which voted for bush 61/39, democrat Charlie brown is leading Republican Tom McClintock in the battle of the coolest names of this entire election cycle. Mcclintock’s problem is that he has a reputation as a carpetbagger.  He’s been running for statewide office for years, but always from the southern part of the state. Now he’s running for a district in the northern part of state. It’s still a lean republican district, but Charlie Brown might just win and give John Stewart and Stephen Colbert the easiest candidate joke in the history of time.

Washington (Kerry by 7%) – Obama +14.4

Washington, more than California, fits the bill of a typically liberal state. It is well-educated, well-funded with a high level of high-tech jobs. Still, there are staunch conservative regions in eastern Washington which provides the only fireworks for this race. Obama will win the state easily.

The real drama is in the Washington 8^th District where Dave Reichert (R-Incumbent), the sheriff who caught the Greenway Killer faces off again against Darcy Burner, whose campaign strategy so far involved telling everyone she’s not a Republican. In such a political climate, this strategy might just work.

Oregon (Kerry by 4%) – Obama +14.8

The only state in the Union with a completely mail-in system of votes, Oregon and the majority of Oregonites has already decided to cast their votes. The results are overwhelmingly for Obama and strongly against moderate Republican Senator Gordon Smith, who looks like a sure casualty of George W. Bush in his fight against state Senator Jeff Merkley. Smith has been well known this election cycle by putting the faces of Democrats in his campaign ads, such as that of the State’s other Senator Ron Wyden and even Barack Obama – much to the chagrins of the Democrats involved.

Hawai’i (Kerry by 9%) – Obama +27.5

Hawai’i is the most liberal state in the nation with an all-Democrat congressional delegation. It’s also Obama’s state of birth. This will not be close.

Highlighted Matchup:

Governor

Washington

Christine Gregoire (D-Incumbent)                   vs                         Dino Rossi (G.O.P)

Rossi is identified as GOP because he insisted that he be identified as such on the ballots in the state of Washington. This speaks volumes about the unpopularity of the Republican brand in the Northwest.

This campaign is an offshoot of the 2004 race, in which Gregoire narrowly beat Rossi by .01% of the vote. Needless to say, there were accusations of voter fraud. The bad feeling between these two candidates can be seen by the tone of their negative ads, in which Rossi has accused Gregoire of, among other things, enabling pedophiles to operate within the state of Washington and failing to take enough Casino money from the local Native-American tribes.

Gregoire, for her part, is playing the role of the consummate politician pulling stunts like traveling the state in an entirely biodiesel bus. The fundraising for this race has been intense and this election will be close, though not nearly as close as it was in 2004.

12:00 AM Central Time

Last Chance – Alaska

Alaska (Bush by 25%) – McCain +14.2

At one time during the cycle, Alaska, of all places, was thought of as possibly in play, but that thought vanished quickly with the selection of Sarah Palin as the Republican vice-presidential candidate. With an expected electorate of about 300,000 people, Absentee ballots will have a large impact on the results of the Alaskan race. This is why we shouldn’t expect an admission of defeat from Ted Stevens tonight or even in the next week. Democratic candidate Mark Begich holds a 22 pt lead in the Senate race as, at least for state wide races, the state is turning increasingly purple.

Highlighted Matchup:

US House

Alaska 1^st

Don Young (Republican Incumbent)               vs              Ethan Berkowitz (D)

Like Ted Stevens, Don Young is also embroiled in a federal investigation for not reporting gifts and bribes. Unlike Stevens, Young has yet to be formally charged so he could conceivably hold onto his seat for another term.

Young is a 17 term congressman from Alaska, but the recent rash of scandals from the Alaska state party has made this seat unpalatable for Alaskans. Enter Ethan Berkowitz who along with Senate candidate Mark Begich has ran one of the best campaigns of the cycle. Berkowtiz is currently leading by 5 or more pts in most polls, meaning that for the first time in 30 years, Don Young had to actually campaign. This will be one of the last races to be called in the entire election.