Election Guide Part Three: Life the Universe and Everything
7:00 PM Central Time The first big wave of poll closings will happen here as states as diverse as Texas, Maine and Eastern South Dakota will close their polls. A lot of interesting races to cover here and a lot of interesting trends
Pennsylvania (Kerry by 2%) – Obama +8.1 Pennsylvania might not be the best place for McCain to stake a last stand, but of all his remaining choices (since he has abandoned Iowa with his ethanol stance and abandoned Michigan with his campaign’s basic incompetency), it is the only choice he has. No other state has the ability to turnaround this election, and no other state is so perfectly suited to McCain’s strong points. Firstly, Pennsylvania has no early-voting system so all the ballots cast will be cast on the day of the election. That means heavy urban centers like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are marginalized and the rural counties have a greater impact. The state is also susceptible to a late run of negative ads, meaning that McCain can save his resources for a final all-out blitz. Still, despite the election laws favoring McCain, the demography of the state still heavily favors Obama. Not only is the state decently democratic, but Pennsylvania has been hard hit by the current economic troubles. Not only that the state has a decent amount of African-Americans, as well as more women than men. McCain certainly chose the best of the bunch, but that’s more damning with faint praise. Republicans, though, stand a much better chance at keeping their Pennsylvania house seats, and maybe even picking up some additional seats. The seats of Republican incumbent Phil English (PA-3) is still considered a tossup, but three once-vulnerable Republican representatives in Jim Gerlach (PA-6), Charlie Dent (PA-15), and Tim Murphy (PA-18) have solidified their leads late. The Democrats, meanwhile, are already fighting desperately for the seats of Christopher Carney (PA-10) and Paul Kanjorski (PA-11) and the addition of John Murtha (PA-12) to the embattled incumbents category doesn’t help the Dems. Yet, it’s not all clear yet for the Republicans as a wave can still sweep away many seats for the G.O.P. The gains made in the Congressional count in Pennsylvania will be indicative of the overall gains we can expect from the Dems nationwide.
New Jersey(Kerry by 7%) – Obama +14.5 Though not nearly as liberal as neighboring New York, New Jersey has been a democratic stronghold since the early 1990s when its whole Senate delegation finally went Democratic. The state has an interesting North-South dynamic with the New York-influenced south being much more liberal (and much more populated) than its Southern counties. Still, as far as general elections go, not much to see here. Obama will easily win New Jersey??s electoral votes, but there are two important house elections in the 3rd and 7th congressional districts. In the 7th district Leonard lance (R) and Linda Stender (D) are racing to win the seat of retiring rep Mike Ferguson (R). Stender almost won in 2006, and lance barely won his primary, the race is currently either a tossup or a lean dem. In the 3rd Chris Myers (R) is running to replace retiring rep James Saxton. His opponent, state senator John Adler (D) has an advantage due to the partisan makeup of the district, money, and a favorable year.
Maine (Kerry by 9%) – Obama +14.5 Maine has an odd way of choosing their electors. Unlike most states, they award the winner of each congressional district the districts electoral vote. No candidate has ever won the state without getting all of the votes, but McCain is trying to change that. He’s campaigning in the more conservative second congressional district, which stretches east of Portland all the way up to Canada. He won’t win though. While he is the type of Republican who could win it, the republican party of Maine is in shambles. Their nominee for governor barely broke 30% with an unpopular sitting governor, and a three way split of the left. Maine will go solidly for Obama, in both districts, while Susan Collins (R-me) will win re-election easily as well despite a well-funded and well-ran campaign from Democrat Tom Allen.
Non Rural? New Hampshire
Mississippi (Bush by 20%) – McCain +11.3 Mississippi is an odd animal. Though segregation has been illegal for quite awhile now, the voters in Mississippi are heavily segregated by race. Almost all of the African-American here will vote Democrat while its Caucasian population votes more heavily Republican than any other state in the union. McCain will win here big, but there are two congressional races worth checking out – Roger Wicker (R) needs to defend Trent Lott’s old seat in the Senate and Travis W. Childers (D) defends Roger Wicker’s old seat in the house. Both Wicker and Childers have pulled away late, but a surge in African-American voters could potentially save the candidacy of Democrat Ronnie Musgrove in his quest for the Senate. The race between Wicker and Musgrove have been especially dirty with Musgrove being accused of associating with homosexual cowboys in attack ads, often airing immediately after ads featuring Musgrove describing the death of his father and its impact on his life. Oh Roger Wicker, I wish I knew how to quit you.
Massachusetts (Kerry by 25%) – Obama +19.9
The only question here is if Obama will win every county in the state.
Delaware (Kerry in 7%) – Obama +24.1
The only question here is who will replace Joe Biden if he wins the vice-presidency.
Connecticut (Kerry by 10%) – Obama +19.8
Once again no presidential quarrel here, but Connecticut does feature an interesting House race.
With Democrats Chris Murphy (CT-6) and Joe Courtney (CT-2) both nursing leads, the most contentious race of this state is in the 4th District, where Republican Chris Shays is fighting to remain the final bastion of Republican representation in the congressional delegation of the entire New England area. In liberal Connecticut, Shays is running on a platform of Pro-Gay Marriage and anti-Iraq war as well as new environmental standards for our country. This strategy of moderate appeal helped Shays barely survive the last two elections, but a wave year can completely sweep the 21-year Congressional veteran out, despite his moderate-liberal views.
Maryland (Kerry by 13%) – Obama +23
In Maryland, Obama will win quickly, but an interesting house race is brewing. Months ago, moderate republican rep. Gilchrest lost his primary against Andy Harris and turned this into a race. Harris, who is backed by the anti-tax anti-regulation Club For Growth, is seen as a bit of an extremist in this district, turning a normally safe district into a race for Democrat Frank Cravotil JR. It’s currently too close to call, but I’d say Harris’ fate lies with Obama’s margin of victory.
Texas (Bush by 23%) – McCain +10.8
Texas seems to be the target of hostility for a lot of people. Maybe that’s because it deftly combines a “we’re really awesome” mentality with a “we’re not actually that awesome” reality without a sense of irony or humility. Regardless of the deficit between Texas’ perceived awesomeness and their actual awesomeness, what is not in doubt is that, in this election at least, Texas will be voting Republican, and solidly so.
And no one typifies the Texan arrogance better than Senator John Cornyn, the hardest name to spell in the US Senate. Cornyn is an oil man who is now an internet folk-hero for his campaign video that, among other things, features a herd of stampeding horses, liberal use of the cracking whip, a sheriff badge, and a showdown between Cornyn, his lovable but immoral ethnic sidekick Tuco, and the amoral mercenary Angel Eyes. Yet, despite his cowboy fantasies, Cornyn will have little problem being re-elected because the rest of Texas also apparently has cowboy fantasies. His opponent, Rick Noriega, is a Vietnam veteran and an internet darling, but his fundraising simply couldn’t match the output of Big John Cornyn.
The House races in Texas are all geared to maintain the status quo as Texas is one of the most Gerrymandered states in the country. The only seat that might change hands is that of Democratic Incumbent Nick Lampson (TX-22), who has the unfortunate duty of defending a seat in the heart of what used to be Tom Delay country (The current heart of Tom Delay country lies between the set of Hardball and his parole officer‘s home. Seriously America, why is this man still on my TV?)
Yet, despite all the forces of conservatism in the state, there are strong signs for a future Democratic upset in Texas. Not only are Hispanics and African Americans nearly 45% of the constituency in Texas, but it also has a large (24.7%) youth population. Still, this is balanced out by a large number of Evangelicals, gun owners and traditional Republicans in this state. Texas might eventually turn blue, but probably not until this current batch of leaders retire.
Oklahoma (Bush by 32%) – McCain +25.7
This is the Republican version of Massachusetts, except with a better College football team.
Missouri (Bush by 7%) – McCain +0.2
Missouri is a swing state based on the strength of its utter mediocrity. Its Democrat-Republcian-Independent self ID currently stands at 35-36-29, one of the most consistently average in the nation. It’s minority populations aren’t Mississippi or Texas high, but it also not South Dakota low. It’s not overly rural or overly urban. Heck, even this state’s sports teams are just ok, including University of Missouri’s football team, which might be the most overrated team ever. The only thing that stands out about the state, really, is the fact that it features a lot of self-identified Evangelicals.
It is on the back of these people that Bush won the election here in 2004. This year, the utterly average amount of youth voters in Missouri is working to balance out the ground game advantage here. Missouri, like Pennsylvania, do not have early voting so it’s an all or nothing state. Obama’s large number of field offices should give him some advantage here.
In the Congressional races, Missouri features two moderately interesting races in its 6th and 9th districts where moderate Democrats will compete against moderate Republicans in a debate of who better represents centrist values. In the words of Freshmen everywhere - SHOOT.ME.NOW!
Tennessee (Bush by 14%) – McCain +12.9
The only drama in this state was if African-American candidate Harold Ford Jr. would run for US Senate again after being accused of being desirous of white women by the Republicans of 2006. Ford Jr. chose to sit this one out, so this state has lost all relevance.
Yet, Tennessee would not go quietly into the night and reiterated their claim the most redneck state in the union by being the only state to feature a State Senator from the NASCAR party. Still, for old times sake, I wish Tennessee would bust out the race baiting ads again. I would love to know whether Barack Obama has designs on women of other races.
Call me Barack!
Alabama (Bush by 26%) – McCain +22.2
Mississippi’s slightly more sensible sister state, Alabama is still expected to go heavily Republican this election cycle. One thing to keep an eye on, though, is the Democrat-controlled state house and senate. Alabama’s district maps may be completely different come 2010.
Western Florida
Illinois (Kerry by 11%) – Obama +21.8
The land of coattails, this is the state where Obama’s impact will be felt in full force in the house races. The Presidential race here is a given, so is Dick Durbin’s re-election to the Senate, but the Republicans could lose a long string of house seats here as Obama turns out supporters in record numbers.
As many as five seats could go Democratic here, but it is more realistic to expect a 2-3 seat gain in Illinois. Specifically, there are two house races to keep an eye on. Mark Kirk (R-IL) is in a district that didn’t vote for bush in 04, and a district that will likely vote for Obama. He’s in a rematch with Democrat Kirk Seals. Normally rematches bode well for the incumbent, but with the hometown boy running strong, Kirk must be a bit anxious. In the 11th district, democratic state senator Debbie Halverson is leading in a race to replace retiring Rep Jerry Weller. Concrete magnate Marty Ozinga has made a race of this, keeping it a tossup, but as with the Kirk/Seals race, Obama will be a boon to Halverson.
Although these two seats are the only ones currently leaning Dem, Illinois is prime territory to be the crest of a Democratic wave. If you’re a Democrat and still entertaining 275 fantasies, this is a state to keep an eye on.
Michigan (Kerry by 3%) – Obama +12.6
I really think if John McCain loses this election, one day political scholars will look back on his decision to pull out of Michigan as the beginning of his downfall. Michigan is a state that went Kerry by only 3 points in 2004. It is a state with unpopular Democrats in the State and local offices, and it is a state where Barack Obama had no ground forces because of his choice to ignore the state in the primaries.
Michigan was also essentially disenfranchised during the primary season, leading to some well-deserved anger at the Michigan Democratic Party as well as the national Democratic Party. Still, McCain made the decision to pullout, perhaps because of the large African-American population and the poor economic conditions in the State.
It certainly doesn’t help that Michigan Republicans have been falling over themselves to endorse Obama.
The Michigan Senate race between long-time Senator Carl Levin and the his unfortunately named challenger Jack Hoogendyk is a mere formality with Levin holding a huge lead. Two Michigan moderates in the 7th and 9th districts also face pretty difficult re-election campaigns. The fate of both these seats really depend on the turnout for Obama. If Obama gets a 20 point win in Michigan, we’ll most likely see these two seats go Democratic as well.
Kansas (Bush by 25%) – McCain +13.6
The surprisingly blue Kansas will not be a big factor in this race as McCain will win here easily, as will Senator Pat Roberts, despite an add by Democratic challenger Jim Slattery that can be best described as sophomoric (it involves suggestions of urination). The only election of national importance in question is the race for the House seat from the 2nd District where Democratic Incumbent Nancy Boyeda must once-more fight off a strong Republican challenge in a heavily Republican state.
This state should stay on the national radar, as it might be the site of one of the toughest Senate races of 2010 between current Governor Kathleen Sebelius and the replacement for retiring Senator Sam Brownback.
Eastern South Dakota (Bush by 21%) – McCain +8.7
After three election cycles of tough politics, South Dakota becomes the land of same old, same old once again. The presidential race is closer than initially thought, but not enough where Obama has a chance. The Senate and state-wide house races are heavily tilted towards Senator Johnson and Representative Herseth-Sandlin. The only drama is the State senate, where the Democrats have an outside shot of obtaining a majority.
In order to do that, Dems will have to protect the seats of Scott Heidepriem and Ben Nesselhuf.
There’s also an abortion bill that will cost the state a lot of money for no good reason. It’s kind of dumb.
Parts of North Dakota (Bush by 27%) – McCain +2.7
A bunch of other states close at 8:00, many of which are important. In the Midwest, North Dakota’s polls close, and we may be looking at a close race. Despite voting for Bush by 20 points in 2004, Obama has been doing quite well in North Dakota, and could, in theory, win. Nodak has 2 dem senators and a dem house member so it’s possible, though unlikely. Still, Obama has been campaigning there for months, and hasn’t been blown out in polls, so anything’s possible.
I have no idea why North Dakota is suddenly more Democratically inclined than South Dakota despite voting more heavily for Bush in 2004. The demographic statistics suggest that there hasn’t been a sudden influx of people nor has there been a significant population shift. Given that, I have come to the conclusion that the difference is caused by the fact that North Dakota is filled with posers.
What to Watch For
No Early Voting
This batch of states feature two “swing” states in Missouri and Pennsylvania that lacks early voting. They will go a long way in answering any questions about the existence or impact of a “Bradley Effect” on this election. These two states are also going to take a long time to count all their ballots, so they’ll probably be two of the last ones called.
The speed at which Pennsylvania is called is especially important. If the State gets called before 9 for Obama, then the election is probably already over.
Highlighted Race:
Governor
Missouri
Jay Nixon (D) vs Kenny Hulshof (R)
We talked a lot about the down ticket candidate riding Presidential coattails, but here is one race where the exact opposite could be true.
Incumbent Republican governor Matt Blunt, son of Congressional leader Roy Blunt, chose a creative way to avoid being elected out - he simply chose not to run and retired with some dignity. In the vacuum, Jay Nixon has conducted one of the best campaigns in the nation, turning a tossup race into a blowout. Nixon currently leads his Republican opponent, Kenny Hulshof, by nearly 20% in a state, as we’ve said before, is middle-of-the-road in every conceivable way.
Keep an eye out on how much Nixon ends up winning this election by, as that will be demonstrative of the strength of the Democratic machinery in Missouri. If the Democrats in Missouri organize a GOTV effort like they did in 2006 (a truly impressive effort that had a large part in helping Claire McCaskill unseat Republican Jim Talent), then Barack Obama will have a much better chance of carrying the state. Furthermore, another loss by the Republicans in the state will open up some very interesting possibilities for the Dems - including a possible challenge of Republican Senator Kit Bonds in 2010.