It seems that the old proverb holds true - repeat something frequently enough, and it will become part of the collective wisdom.

Recently in an interview with Bill O'Reily of all people, Senator Barack Obama stated that "the surge has succeeded in ways that nobody would have expected." It is my sincere hope that the Senator meant the real effects of the surge was unexpected by both military planners and civilian leadership because any other meaning would simply be a perpetuation of the same lie that seems to have taken hold in our collective conscience.

Yes, despite what Senator McCain, Obama or any other person may tell you, the surge has not worked. At least, it hasn't worked if our goal in going to Iraq was to truly build an united nation or to start any type of meaningful political progress whatsoever.

In fact, the exact opposite is true. What the surge has done was created a system of ethnic segregation in the major cities of Iraq. This means that we aren't creating the foundations for a democratic republic in Iraq, but that we are creating a system of repression and ethnic segregation perpetuated by ethnic cleansing of both Shi'as, Kurds, and Sunnis.

If our original goal in Iraq was indeed to create a democratic bastion in the Middle East and if our original goals of the surge was to "provide the time and conditions conducive to reconciliation among political and ethnic factions,"* then we have undoubted failed. Rather than create an atmosphere for ethnic harmony, what Iraq and the surge has done is to create a country that has self-segregated into Sunni areas, Shi'a areas and Kurdish areas. As explained by one of the researchers:

“If the surge had truly ‘worked,’ we would expect to see a steady increase in night-light output over time,” says Thomas Gillespie, one of the co-authors, in a press release. “Instead, we found that the night-light signature diminished in only certain neighborhoods, and the pattern appears to be associated with ethno-sectarian violence and neighborhood ethnic cleansing.”*

What's worse the people who created the violence in Iraq in the first place have not simply disapperared. Rather, they're just blending into new militant organizations like the Sons of Iraq. What's worse, the people that were once streaming into Iraq are now streaming into Pakistan and Afghanistan, creating the current set of problems that we face with our nominal allies.

If the purpose of the surge was to create a new, harmonious Iraq, we have failed, because what we have created is a nation in the throughs of Ethnic segregation and Rwanda style ethnic cleansing. If the goal was to lower the reach of terror, we have failed because all we did was create another battleground in Pakistan and our constant presence simply encourages more hatred towards the USA in the Islamic world. If the goal was to lower the number of violent acts, then I have a better solution - take the troops out of harms way. I think it's a great way to reduce the number of American troops killed to zero.

But that's part of the problem, isn't it? That we have no more set goals in the nation of Iraq. The easiest way to defuse Iraq, I believe, is simply to partition it into a Sunni Iraq, a Shi'a Iraq and a Kurdish Iraq. The country is already well on its way to total segregation and if we allow it to occur with our military presence staring the Iraqis straight in the face, the backlash will be astounding. The only way to avoid that is to allow the tranisition to occur politically and without insurrection.

What we are seeing in Iraq is not a triumph of American military might, but the beginnings of a long ethnic struggle perpetuated by our bribes and presence. We must allow Iraq to solve its current crisis - as have been proposed before. Anything else would be a drain on the American people and a crime against the Iraqis.

*Credit to Think Progress and UCLA's survey