Non-swing state review:Georgia
With 11 days left until the election, most people are getting rather sick of the bombardment of information about the swing states. Factors not being mentioned are developments in non-swing states that still have important elections. For the next 11 days I will provide information about one state per day. Even if a state isn’t important (or might not be important) in the presidential election doesn’t mean it doesn’t have other important races. Since early voting started in Georgia during late September 900,000 people have voted. That’s almost 30% of the total 2004 Georgia electorate. Such a dramatic up tick in early voting demonstrates just how motivated the populace is about this election. It also means that the lines might be significantly smaller come election day, or there may be a much different electorate than in past elections. This could affect both the senate race and the race for Georgia’s electoral votes. Currently the senate race between incumbent Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) and former state legislator and 2006 lt. governor nominee Jim martin. This race was on the backburner for most of the summer when Chambliss led by double digits. Then something odd happened: it tightened. A few weeks ago, a poll came out showing the race tied. Well, it had to be an outlier right? A poll that gives an idea of where the race is, but not accurate? Right? Wrong. Poll after poll came out showing a close race. The polls ranged anywhere from Chambliss a few points ahead to tied, to Chambliss six or seven points ahead. The latest, by Rasmussen, has it 47-45 in Chambliss’ favor. This is an important race for democrats due to how Chambliss won back in 2002. In 2002 he defeated incumbent democrat Max Cleland by questioning his patriotism. This ad, This race is going to comedown to turnout. Right now, of the 900,000 early voters, about a third of the voters are African American. This is a sharp up tick from the 25% of African Americans who voted in Georgia in 2004. The two questions are going to be, will it stay at this level, or dip back to 2004 levels, and how democratic will they vote? They voted for Kerry by an 88-12 point margin. Should these numbers occur again, or edge higher, it will certainly put Chambliss’ re-election in danger. The other race is the presidential race, which is running on basically the same lines as the senate race: turnout. Kerry won 23% of the white vote in 2004. Seeing as Obama is doing much better than Kerry nationwide, has been advertising in Georgia, has campaigned there, and has similar policies, it should stand to reason that Obama will do better than Kerry in Georgia. Former Georgia Congressman Bob Barr’s presence on the ballot will also be an x-factor, possibly the 2-3 points needed to tilt the race. If the demographics change from 2004 and Obama does better in the white vote by 5-15 points he could very well win. Though that’s extremely unlikely, and if he did it would likely be the electoral votes that put him in the upper 300’s-400 rather than the votes that give him 270. If there’s a landslide, look for Georgia to turn blue for the first time since 92.