Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Myth of the "American Coalition"

11:24PM Oct 07, 2008 in category Foreign Policy by Xiaoxi Zhang

During the second presidential debates, John McCain made the curious and unbelievably wrong claim that somehow the gaffes of Barack Obama during the primary season led to a decline of public approval for America in Pakistan.


Here's the problem - approval of America was down from the very beginning in Pakistan. This low approval rating is because America and Pakistan are fighting two fundamentally different wars on terror. Essentially, Pakistan's War on Terror is focused on bringing stability to Pakistan, while America's goal in the War on Terror is to stabilize Afghanistan, thereby helping America.


As the Cristian Science Monitor explains:


 


America wants Pakistan to target terrorists that Pakistan has long tolerated. Since militancy emerged in Pakistan in the 1980s – then significantly funded by the US in order to counter the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan – Pakistan has sought to manage certain terrorist networks, not destroy them. Often, these terrorists have no grievance with Pakistan but use Pakistan as a base to attack Afghanistan.


This practice continued during the regime of former President and Army chief Pervez Musharraf, with short military campaigns to chasten militants, followed by cease-fires that let them rebuild. Yet he went largely unchallenged because the US was focused on Iraq, and Afghanistan was peaceful by comparison.


Because of this disconnect, the Pakistani army is focusing its war on terror on areas that are of prime domestic economic and political importance to Pakistan - such as the Swat Valley, an area close to Islamabad, but of low military importance for American military planners. American planners, correctly, identified the Tribal Areas as the origins of this unrest and have been pushing the Pakistani government to take action there. This is the source of the low public approval rating of America in Pakistan - the fact that the majority of the Pakistani people believe such military action is useless and just makes the insurgents more militant and more dangerous.


Until America and Pakistan can reconcile their strategic interests and ultimate goals, we'll always see a low approval of America in Pakistan, and in this area, we are making progress. With this success, however, comes problems.


By the Pakistan military's own estimates the most recent tribal offensive has left at least a thousand Taliban and Al Qaeda militants dead. The blow to militants has caused civilian casualties to mount, and at least 450,000 refugees have fled Bajaur into neighboring areas of Pakistan and into Kunar Province, in eastern Afghanistan. The Red Cross and the United Nations have declared that they now consider this region of Pakistan a full-fledged war zone.


When these offensives occur, logistical and economic turmoil occurs in Pakistan. Until America provides logistical and economic relief to the people who are directly impacted by its War on Terror, there will be low approval ratings and little progress in stabilizing Pakistan.And until we conduct ourselves in a responsible manner, and not incite the Pakistani people by killing civilians with missile attacks or supplying Nuclear technology to its long-time enemy India. The Pakistani people have seen seven years of intolerant language, poorly conducted campaigns, and both American support for an illegal regime in Pakistan and American enabling of its historic enemies. We will only win hearts and minds if we mitigate the damage of the Bush Presidency and its irresponsible policy.


Even then, there is no guarantee for success - certainly not when Pakistani intelligence is supporting both the US and the Taliban. Situations and the players involved change, and so do the nature of our enemies. The Taliban is even adapting its social and economic demands and the methods in which they conduct this war. To win, we must never repeat the mistakes of Iraq - snap judgments, quick decisions and the folly of believing that "not blinking" is an appropriate substitute for actual diplomacy and statemenship.


But unifying the goals of these two nations can help, and by the approval ratings of America in Pakistan, we must do so to conduct a successful campaign. In order to help us in this war, the Pakistani government must win the hearts of the Pakistani people, and their lack of love for America is a reflection of fundamental strategic divides between nations, not the words of one man.

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